Geopolitical Focus – August, 2024

Who runs the World now – Hegemony and its own rules, Woke and War. While the coup to remove President Biden from the US 2024 ticket for reelection succeeded, it left him as President to finish the term. It may have caused a global shoulder shrug, but nothing more. Israel’s Netanyahu does what he wants, just sends powder; Zelensky does what he wants, including invading Russia, if he gets enough powder. Meanwhile, the US President sends out his Cabinet Members to rack up miles with no results. At the same time, China, Russia, and India poke a finger at the US, making deals for cheap energy (oil and gas) and forming alliances with the Middle East and former Soviet satellites for global power. The US puts its hope in Japan, Korea, Germany, and some other countries with limited resources, responding to BRIC diplomatic efforts with war threats and sanctions. So, with the democratic direction in the US and the Kamala – Walz connection, expect an economic and political calamity. We might become world leaders in abortions, wokeness, and military spending, all on the way to becoming equally poor, but perhaps sportier. For the NYT, it’s Coach Walz, not Governor. That will impress world leaders, and Kamala will get more geography lessons traveling the world. We can assume she will form a powerful war machine with the likes of Ursula von der Leyen, Estonia’s President Kaja Kallas, and Annalena Baerbock, the German Foreign Minister, to name the most pro-war voices. Well, they all march to the tunes of Green, Woke, and intolerance.

Eliminate Hamas – This has not happened yet, and where are all the hostages? Some reports say 100 or so we do not know , while others say the last remaining Israeli hostage is dead. And where are the others?

"Representatives of the IDF officially announced today to the family of Bilha Yanon Zakara Barakah that she is no longer alive," IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said in a statement on X, formerly Twitter , on August 6.

This is no longer really of interest, with the Olympics and US elections offering the press great options. That the architect of the October 7 Massacre will be the new leader of Hamas should show the world the intentions, with no backing down. So, while we are all watching the Western global powers destroy more people, the BRIC alliance quietly continues diplomacy to secure its place. On the other side of the coin, the Western global powers have no problem with the Israelis quietly expanding their territories at the cost of Palestine . That is all legitimate, and if the ICJ (UN) does not comply, it is considered an irrelevant opinion. Israel has all the rights—sounds like a democratic voice. Under that scenario, the British granted Israel its current territory in 1948, and in 2024, they drive the Palestinians into exile. Why is the US leading the effort and not Europe? That may go back to President Truman , but certainly, the US War Machine will move its powers to defend Israel all the way. All good intentions, and then politics got in the way. Or shall we say, special interests? Can anyone answer the question of what Israel’s geopolitical influence is and why other countries in the Middle East are not at war with each other? Look at this report from 2020 , and how did we get back into a powder keg by 2024? Biden may have an opinion on that. It doesn’t matter how many Hamas operatives the IDF kills, the next one stands ready.

Putin the Terrible – To mediate the Israel and direct Iran conflict? While the US leadership is busy with an election, promoting abortions and wokeness, and the executive branch traveling between Washington and Delaware, Putin is active with Tehran , advocating for restraint and calm, while the US sends aircraft carriers and other military equipment. Perhaps destroying Iran will also destroy Hamas and the Houthi, while the Afghanistan withdrawal was the event bringing it all in motion?

Evan Gershkovich – The WSJ Reporter jailed in Russia for doing his job. What did Biden and Harris gain by traveling to greet him upon his arrival back in the US? No one mentioned who the prisoner swap involved or what their crimes were. The US administration needed a win, so any price to pay was okay, while Hamas still has five Americans in their hands. Wonder if Putin got the better deal ?

But the welcome news was still sure to spark concerns over the imbalance of the deal — with Russia freeing journalists, dissidents, and others convicted in a highly politicized court system in exchange for people the West regards as rightfully charged — and whether it gives foreign actors seeking leverage over the US an incentive to take prisoners.

While there are January 6 participants in prison, the WSJ and its colleagues are certain that the Russian “political” prisoners are all in jail for their political beliefs. Perhaps undermining the authorities with foreign influence peddling is a form of agitation?

The China – India Alliance May Destroy a US Pipe Dream, pulling India to its side. While the US has a history of about 250 years (1776), it mainly benefited from being surrounded by water and friendly neighbors to the south and north. The biggest global influence started with WWI and WWII, but it also helped the economy jump-start, especially after WWII. Globalization and economic dynamics starting in the 1980s allowed China and India—well, the cheap, highly educated flooded the high-tech companies, while manufacturing was outsourced to these countries for cheap labor. It seemed like a perfect match until the US figured out that first, they copied the same generation equipment to sell at half the price, and then engineered the quantum leap to overtake the leaders. Now, the US reverses course and sanctions progress in China. So, when you’re India or China, and the US has a population of 380 million or 4.25% globally, what’s your strategy? Being dependent on someone who has no long-term strategy and intended to use your cheap labor to dominate (see Mexico until Trump renegotiated NAFTA to bring more equity), you may just turn the table. Let’s see, but India has not complied with the US sanctions on Russia and is basically the distributor and beneficiary. While Europe has complied and paid the price with a recession, China may still struggle, but focusing on 96.75% of the world and forgetting the US may require some real out-of-the-basement diplomatic effort. Or perhaps Mr. Walz, who like Bernie, is married to the Communist (Lenin, Stalin, or Mao) concept. It will be a piece of cake to get along and cave.

Here is David P. Goldman on the India – China relations. Perhaps Victoria Nuland and Barack Obama may rethink their Ukraine approach as the war mongers and hegemons. Walz may waltz to the tune of the orchestra, but he will not make the music, nor will Kamala. Putin and Xi are excited.

India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on July 25 endorsed her economic advisor’s proposal to open the country to direct investment from China, effectively frozen since the Sino-Indian border clashes of 2020.

Earlier this week, Reuters reported, “India’s Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran said…that to boost its global exports, New Delhi can either integrate into China’s supply chain or promote foreign direct investment (FDI) from China.”

“Among these choices, focusing on FDI from China seems more promising for boosting India’s exports to the US, similar to how East Asian economies did in the past,” Nageswaran said according to Reuters.

The proposed opening to China—a rebuke to American diplomacy in the region—followed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to New Delhi earlier this month.

Asia Times’ newsletter Global Risk-Reward Monitor reported exclusively July 11, “Modi asked Putin to help India resolve its longstanding border dispute with China. This is the most important military conflict in Asia, limited as it is because it puts the region’s two largest countries at odds. Russian mediation, however informal, would entail a diplomatic revolution and make a mockery of America’s hope of rallying Asian countries against China.”

The Military and its Ways – While military budgets seem to be “government” spending, the money still comes from donations people pay in the form of taxes. Here’s a translation from a Swiss paper calculating military spending per capita.

Nevertheless, in relation to world GDP, arms spending in 2023 was around 2.5 percent at 2400 billion US dollars, above the NATO target. On average, $310 per capita of the 7.7 billion registered inhabitants (2022: $286) was spent on national defense.

In the country ranking, Israel is still ahead of the United States with $2975 per capita, ahead of Saudi Arabia with $2360, Singapore with $2230, Kuwait and Norway with $1580 each.

In Europe, the Scandinavian countries, in particular, but also Great Britain, spend a lot of money ($1100) on maintaining external security. The nuclear power France brings it to $900. The other three large EU countries (Germany $789, Italy $602, Spain $488) have kept their national defense on a short leash financially in recent years, such as Switzerland with $702. However, the 36 European countries (excluding Turkey) still spent around 406 billion ($736 per capita) on armaments in 2023, almost four times as much as Russia. Japan has also been reluctant to invest in the military since World War II. In 2023, 50 billion dollars or $405 per Japanese person was spent on this. However, because of the threat from North Korea with missiles and latently also to defend sea areas, Japan is now in the process of expanding its defense.

China, as the number two military world power, spends "only" $210 per capita of the population. But thanks to the country's large population, these expenditures add up to $296 billion, which means that the Chinese military budget still reaches about a third of the American military expenditure of $916 billion.

Russia is still number three in the world with $109 billion military expenditure, or $750 per capita, clearly ahead of India with $83 billion ($60 per capita) and Saudi Arabia with $76 billion. Calculated per capita, this is $2356, which puts the country in fourth place in the world in terms of per capita arms spending. Iran, which is currently threatening retaliatory strikes against Israel, spent around $10 billion, or $121 per capita in 2023.

In this context of military expansion, you may wonder if the UN is waging war on the Western world by allowing North Korea to legally sell its weapons to friends and whoever wants them, using an international network of navigation. See the article here , looks like war is a welcome thing?

The Global Climate Debate – The solar, wind, and EV revolution have not yet reached the military and its wars, but they have stalled anyhow. EVs are no longer the engine driving the economy, solar and wind may be contributors but not the only solution to the 1.5-degree goal. If all the climate activists and governments used the same vigor as they fight oil and gas in the war zones and all military operations , we would have no shortage of skilled labor and would reach 1.5 degrees with peace on Earth. Bet fighting on foot with halberds and swords would not be as attractive, and not sure even advocates of women in combat troops might take a backseat.

Emissions from armed forces and military equipment cause considerable damage on a global scale. Nevertheless, under pressure from the United States, the military's CO2 emissions were excluded from climate agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015. So far, it is not a mandatory component and is neither consistently collected nor transparently published. The resulting lack of data means that the effects of the military on global warming can only be calculated imprecisely.

According to a study by Neta Crawford, co-director of Brown University's Costs of War project, the US Department of Defense alone contributes more to the climate crisis than countries such as Sweden or Portugal. This makes it the world's largest institutional emitter of greenhouse gases. Worldwide, the military sector is said to be responsible for about six percent of global CO2 emissions.

Since Mr. Orban has upset the Western Elites with his visits to Kyiv, Russia, and China, it has been a bit quieter: the reporting, the political cries for more war, but especially the actions on the front. Russia has probably realized that only rubble is not a desired outcome, that it needs to balance its own losses, so the focus is on destroying infrastructure to make life for Ukrainians more miserable and holding positions. This probably puts Zelensky in a bad negotiation position, so the West is gunning up for long-range missiles to attack inside Russia. It is the same escalation tactic as in Israel, but there are still some delusional reporters out there, rhetorically having Ukraine win the war with Russia with the argument that they are not advancing, so Ukraine with the help of the West should start a full-out offensive attack. That this reporter is from a paper that deals with foreign affairs is remarkable, given that to win you need a 10:1 advantage. Perhaps he has a camouflage pajama and a nightcap of steel. Hopefully, Mr. Orban can soon send him a pair of socks—warm feet offer better sleep—with peace between Ukraine and Russia because Russia has the 10:1 advantage, and Ukraine no longer has the people. But the article, if you read it twice, makes no sense anyway, other than strategical second-grade talk. But that is what you get in today’s media.

But well, Zelensky must have read this motivational piece and is wasting Western support. When will we realize we all live on the same planet, but we are not all ideologically aligned? So let’s live on, but is it really a turning point or a suicidal move?

After months of losing ground to Russia in brutal, grinding battles in Ukraine, Kyiv shifted tactics with a surprise attack into Russian territory this week that caught Moscow off guard and opened a new front in the 30-month war.

Ukrainian forces have punched through Russian border defenses and seized several settlements in fighting that was still raging on Thursday, according to Russian officials, a Ukrainian soldier, and analysts. The attack triggered a state of emergency in one region in western Russia. Ukrainian armored columns were filmed moving along roads as far as six miles inside Russia.

But the attack left some military analysts wondering why Ukraine would throw scarce resources into a risky assault in a new area at a time when it is fighting pitched battles to hold on to positions in its own territory.

It was unclear whether Ukraine would seek to hold the area. Whatever the next step by Ukrainian forces, the attack appeared to push the limits on attacking inside Russia with American-provided equipment and put the Russians in disarray. American-made armored vehicles were also filmed being blown up in a Russian counterattack.

Then you read this from the British Commander in Chief – he must get his intelligence in his favorite pub. But it just affirms how weak the Western elite political leadership is. All answers are war. Ever wonder when you buy 2-year-old shovels for the sandbox, how many build castles together or on their own, and how many start a fight over the sand? Mostly, it’s only once a stupid adult makes a judgment about who has the better castle.