Global Power Struggles and Failed Diplomacy: The Russia-Ukraine Conflict, EU Autocracy, and Middle East Peace Prospects in 2025
The Long-Term Scenarios in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
The world faces fundamental decisions, and Ukrainians may ultimately pay the steepest price through loss of life and territory. What began as a problem in 2014, when Victoria Nuland (Role in Regime Change: Nuland was a key figure in the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, which ousted President Viktor Yanukovych. A leaked phone call revealed her involvement in selecting post-revolution leadership, including support for Arseniy Yatsenyuk. Criticism from Anti-Interventionists: Critics argue her actions exemplify neoconservative regime-change tactics, accusing her of escalating tensions with Russia and contributing to the current war ) and the CIA orchestrated a coup that killed Russians in Donbass and installed a pro-Western government in Ukraine, has led to the consequences of escalating NATO expansion and the resulting war.
While arguments continue endlessly, this represents failed diplomacy and the extension of hegemonic policies (Dick Cheney's legacy) based on the belief that Russia will ultimately fail. The latest move sanctioning oil exports to India and China represents a quantum leap in geopolitics with an unlikely outcome that these nations will purchase 100% of their oil from the US or Middle East. Yet as the oil trade comes under pressure from Washington, New Delhi appears to be quietly strengthening another link with Moscow — defense. Reports suggest India is preparing to sign a $1.2 billion deal for additional S-400 air-defense systems. With Moscow's oil revenues squeezed by sanctions, fresh arms purchases serve as both financial relief for Russia and strategic reassurance that the relationship endures beyond hydrocarbons.
With the current scenario, if the war doesn't conclude by the first quarter of 2026, expect Russia to completely obliterate Ukraine. Europe lacks both money and infrastructure, and the US would be unwise to bail out an overambitious Zelensky, whose Hollywood crew builds drones (under corruption investigation), and who refused the 2022 peace offer on Boris Johnson's advice, acting as Joe Biden's messenger. There's now talk of Zelensky asking Trump for peace .
Russia is currently winning the war, regardless of how deeply Zelensky flies drones into Russia. Russia mobilizes its home defense while India needs Russian oil and China has no interest in seeing Russia destroyed, even if Xi loses power and is replaced. Meanwhile, Putin's archrival warns Europe about the coming cold war, and scenarios emerge suggesting Russia only tests NATO's Eastern defenses .
The question remains: How does hegemonic force differ from what Russia attempts? Who decides what constitutes good or evil — the war mongers, US Democrats, the elites, intelligence agencies like the CIA, KGB, Mossad, MSS or MI6, or the Pope? If you read 50 newspapers, all claim to know how to fix everything. Yet when a US President attempts to negotiate peace, everyone unites to fight the peace effort — a sandbox shovel war.
This war can only be won with US boots on the ground, which won't happen, so Russia will win either now or in six months after another million deaths. For the West, only dead Russians count, but remember that 25-27 million died in WWII and they still defended their homeland. One might ask why they didn't stop at the Ukraine border instead of Berlin. Perhaps they thought it better to send the Germans all the way home. The British remain bitter about this, as do the war mongers, so they attempt to relive the nightmare through NATO. Meanwhile, there's discussion about whether India might join the CPTPP . Key Facts About CPTPP, Members: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United Kingdom, and Vietnam.
The European Union and Europe: A War Industry to Rescue the Economy
The EU began as a peace project and cooperation among countries but has increasingly become an unelected governing body operating autocratically, driving legislation that doesn't align with countries' local laws and sovereignty. Germany acts as conductor with France and the UK assisting, stifling critics and using legislation and regulations to drive their agenda. Martin Selmayr's conclave of catastrophe exemplifies this approach — he was sent to the Vatican after a self-serving episode at the EU, but his legacy lives on with current leadership.
One would expect the EU to form its own EU-Russia politics as a peace force rather than acting as NATO's extended arm supporting catastrophic expansion plans disguised as peace politics. The EU essentially delegated European defense to the US, with all European nations reducing defense spending, cutting armies, and singing songs of peace. Meanwhile, the EU pursues ever-expanding "enlargement" plans to unify the continent and creates the Erasmus generation — educating a generation of unifiers or simply followers.
Western European countries sank into green-red wave policies, embracing woke and feel-good sentiments while allowing NATO expansion, with many planning EU expansion as well. Throughout this time, Russia has been treated as the "unwelcome brother" — acceptable for sending oil and gas and allowing Western companies like McDonald's to establish themselves in Russia, but without genuine diplomatic easing. Relations remained overshadowed by the Dick Cheney doctrine and the obsession that communism is bad — perhaps it is, but that's a decision for the Russian people to make, not Victoria Nuland.
Imagine if the US were essentially at war with all South American countries — we like the bananas and cheap labor but never treat them as equals, maintaining one-sided interests. Now we have a President who wants deals instead of wars, yet wars hit home based on the utopian belief that military action still commands political power. Peace through strength works, yes, and muscle flexing too, but only when all diplomatic attempts have failed.
Kaja Kallas will disagree — she's one of the EU authoritarians who believes only dead Russians are good ones, the failed diplomat . Power is all they understand, leading the entire EU into a poverty house while decrying communism and Hitlerism, even as they create new political systems of elitism and wokeism, until they notice where all the money has gone. The EU debt map tells the story, alongside England's financial crisis and questions about EU finances regarding who pays and who benefits .
The trend is pointing to the right , prompting the left (woke) rally cry of "NAZI" . Meanwhile, the EU's military plan remains a dream with empty pockets and a waste in failed diplomacy . It is all war, perhaps influenced by too many think tanks . Corruption shows all the signs of an autocracy , and whistleblowers get their European treat .
Israel: The Main Enemy for Peace as Hamas Seems to Have More Lives Than Israel the Fight to Win
The peace deal between Hamas and Israel — everyone wants it except Hamas and the Zionists, with each side attempting to obliterate the other over the years in this ongoing conflict. Thirty years ago, Minister President Rabin was assassinated by a far-right Jewish extremist because he wanted to cede land to the Palestinian Liberation Organization under Arafat for a two-state solution.
The tunnels of hope and death have existed since the 1970s, initially for food, and by the late 1990s for weapons smuggling due to blockades and restrictions. The tunnels' evolution continues today. The UN hasn't accepted Hamas as a legitimate government — the ruler of Gaza since 2007 — while the West Bank remains under Palestinian authority, where settlers continue seizing territory with minimal global outcry or protest.
For 30 years the world has watched as civilians are killed by the thousands. The World Zionist Congress sees mass walkouts on the topic of stopping settlements while Muslims migrate worldwide. Globalization has displaced millions for religious, political, and personal reasons. How can we implement the current 21-point peace plan when hate resurfaces in many countries for ideological or personal reasons?
Muslims outnumber Jews by large margins in Europe according to demographic studies , raising questions about their genuine interest in defending Israel once conflicts extend beyond Hamas — a potential powder keg. Ireland's point of view grants Hamas legitimacy. Hopefully the Middle East can find a way, perhaps the next Pax Romana with a united stabilization force to control hotbeds including Syria and Afghanistan, despite its recruitment problems . However, don't expect French, German, or British troops, and certainly not Irish ones.
Since Netanyahu threatens to destroy all tunnels unless Hamas disarms, according to some publications, filling tunnel entrances with concrete could have saved many lives — the mass bombings apparently missed them. Mother Nature may force Iran to cut its ambitions due to water shortages , but more importantly, the Mullahs may reach the end of their life cycle , possibly by 2028.
The broader context includes millions of refugees around the world and what appears to be the end of globalization .
