Geopolitical Focus – July, 2024 # 2
Geopolitical Focus - July 2024: NATO's Expanding Role: Implications for Global Stability and Power Dynamics
The NATO – Summit has ended, resulting in more war and more power to NATO. They are potentially expanding globally with thoughts of addressing threats from China and other territories or countries. We need to win this war to save the West, at all costs. If all of Ukraine is dead, but it becomes a NATO Member , so be it.
NATO , Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen envisions an expanded, global role for NATO. Today, threats to NATO’s founding members, let alone the world, tend to be global in nature and frequently from non-state actors. Hence, overcoming such threats requires a globally connected security Alliance.
While the dispute in Ukraine is not welcome, the expansion of NATO is simply the cause. But like many other global decisions based on fears of losing hegemonial powers, war is not a replacement for dialogue and diplomacy, but trust and honesty. As long as the global media fuels its frenzies on emotional intelligence (do not call it moral and self-righteousness), good and evil are the same as thousands of years ago. Perhaps wars are simply inevitable for humans; good animals cannot build weapons?
There are voices that call out China as an enabler for Russia , well, they may do it for the same reasons the US fuels the Western coffers. Once Russia is cut off and weak, who holds back a global NATO to find a reason to walk to China? In the end, it's not what they call a democracy, and you always find reasons to stage a war – see illegal wars . Or simply they want to be hegemons as well. Think about global population , lots of people potentially being killed for political systems? Think of religious wars, or why has the US not yet freed the Uyghurs in China ? We could send them weapons as well, and at the same time we assassinate a US Presidential candidate, and some people justify it on moral grounds?
The Woke and Broke still giving for a war , keep NATO in check, Ukraine neutral, and use the money for good? Complicated, not really. Regional conflicts cost less and kill only half the people. Not all people are Roman Catholics; those wars are part of history.
It is an interesting comparison. Here is an interview in a Swiss paper with Fyodor Lukyanov (note there are 2 parts and the beginning is in German) and on the other side the NATO Bullet thinking . And perhaps delusional like the current US President , but war mongers fear nothing more than peace?
And if you need the DEI component of NATO, or the German army under the former Defense Minister, Ursula van der Leyen, now EU Head, here is the readiness ?
If you follow international economics (IMF), they are worried. The economies in India and China are outpacing the rest of the world in GDP growth. Europe, with all the sanctions, is still sluggish and drowning in debt. The US, thanks to the war in Ukraine and global spending on warfare, can manage the debt and keep the economy strong but not fundamentally sound.
The IMF report predicts global output to grow at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent next year. These projections are largely unchanged from the forecast that the organization released in April. Much of this growth is expected to come from China’s economy , which the IMF projects will grow at a rate of 5 percent this year—high in comparison to other nations but slower than the 6.1 percent rate that China’s National Bureau of Statistics has estimated. Beijing recorded a strong economic start at the beginning of 2024, but growth slumped in the spring after the country faced a real estate crash .
Political uncertainty and rising protectionism, particularly as the United States and European Union strengthen their tariffs on Chinese goods, could worsen high inflation. Both U.S. President Joe Biden and former U.S. President Donald Trump have embraced tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, semiconductors, and critical minerals as central components of their reelection bids. “The potential for significant swings in economic policy as a result of elections this year, with negative spillovers to the rest of the world, has increased the uncertainty,” the IMF report said.
The Economics of War , if you still believe it is about democracy, think much harder especially with the thought that Russia may invade all of Europe. Just to give you an idea: Hitler's military spending from 1935 to 1939 increased from 8 to 23 percent; from 1940 to 1944, it rose from 38 to 52 percent of GDP for an all-out war. In comparison, Russia from 2014 to 2022 spent 4.3-5.4-5.5-3.7-3.8-3.9-4.0-4.1-4.1 percent; just enough to survive? So, better to invest in killing people. Imagine the Green parties demonstrating against CO2; now they are busy drumming up more pollution and ammunition . And Hitler's dream company is the engine to pull Germany out of economic misery ?
Mr. Orban, the President of Hungary (note Hungary was invaded by the USSR in 1956 under the leadership of Nikita Khrushchev ) as President of the European Commission went to see Zelensky, Putin, Xi, and Mr. Trump (during the NATO celebrations) to talk about a potential peace proposal after the botched summit in Switzerland. So, one person has the guts to swim in a shark pool to talk peace, and good grief was he treated like a traitor. The EU President and the war mongers certainly have their sights on the prize, an EU and NATO with Ukraine , or the rubble that will be left. If you talk peace in these circles, you get executed? And all that for democracy. But read about the concerns they have for the future. It simply cannot be someone who openly talks peace; that would be a loss for the current political elite? Remember all Trump said about NATO: if you do not pay your fair share, we will not support you. Now Biden claims he got them to pay the 2 percent or even more. Well, thank you, Mr. Trump; otherwise, the US would pay for all the wars . Special interest certainly. If you would have the people vote about wars , there would be none. Remember, Crimea was a present from Russia to Ukraine? But if you get punished by the autocratic leader of the EU to talk to your enemies, another democratic fallacy?
By the way, when did you last hear about Ukraine successes ? Not really, but here is a hint why Joe Biden is still running , or at least Biden's proxy. And the Russians say, not so fast , and the strategy, hopefully, Trump wins so we can end this war. So, what is so bad about talking and negotiating rather than killing? It looks that all the people branded as Hitler and Nazi in politics are actually for a common good, not killing each other, but at the same time, you can only coexist with tolerant views. Stalin and Mao never had that tolerance, just remember. And if you hand everyone 500 dollars, some of them will have nothing after one hour, and others will have doubled the monies, ever since the world exists, unless you live under Mao or Stalin, they are all equal with nothing.
France elections may have had the desired outcome to defeat the Le Pen party , for now, but Macron's calculation to solidify his power took a catastrophic turn, with the coalition with the far-left party. Remember, when Italy elected Ms. Georgia Meloni , the liberal and left world called her the new Mussolini, but for now, she seems to be doing very well and she has leadership traits all others lack in Europe, including Germany, England, France, and the EU, who are all busy complying with the Green Agenda and NATO (US proxy) wars, destroying their national identity and economies . Stationing new missiles , preferably next to solar and wind power sources, may help, certainly not the environment. So it will perhaps prove costly since France's left and right are not necessarily in favor of the Ukraine War and US Politics .
A broad alliance called the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP), which includes Socialists, Communists, Greens, and the hard-left La France Insoumise (LFI), won the most seats, with 193 in the 577-strong lower chamber. Macron's allies came second with 164 seats, and the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) third with 143.
Macron told Tuesday's cabinet meeting that it was the "responsibility" of his allies to come up with a proposal "for a majority coalition or a wide-ranging legislative pact." This, he said, would help preserve his government's "economic achievements" and favor "social justice."
The U.S. and Germany have announced together that the U.S. military will deploy more — and more advanced — long-range missiles in Germany in 2026, plans the countries say demonstrate the American "commitment to NATO and its contribution" to European defense. Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov vowed that his country would respond, calling the planned deployment "damaging" to Russia's security.
The BRICS coalition has been quiet lately, but nevertheless, they will have their next summit in Russia in October 2024, so we will see by then if there is more alignment and consensus with the G Alliances, or if NATO gets an equivalent on the Eastern flank. That would be quite a development, but would it really surprise with NATO’s aggressive expansion?
The election of Keir Starmer in the UK may not be a big surprise, given the national disarray in politics, but unlike other nations, do the British really know what they want? Go back to the EU, become more social or more financially responsible, or completely reinvent themselves? When will the elites, including Boris Johnson as the Hillary Clinton of the British, finally realize that the good old days may not ever come back as a global power? The new government, as in France, is bound to budget issues, a sign the NATO alliance may finally realize better use of money than the military, unless you have a dominant sector running it?
In a moment of traditional and sometimes surreal British pomp and ceremony , Westminster witnessed the first king’s speech under a Labor government since 1950. The speech, delivered in the House of Lords by monarch Charles, set out the legislative agenda for new Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government.
Starmer’s agenda features big-ticket items including a shakeup of planning laws to trigger housebuilding and infrastructure investment, the establishment of a publicly owned energy company, and a plan to bring failing privatized railway networks back into public ownership.
But amid Labor glee, plenty of MPs in Starmer’s newly enlarged party will be smarting at the items missing from his first legislative pitch — be they existing party policies or other issues they wish Britain’s new center-left government was prepared to adopt.
Defense spending hike
Starmer has long promised an increase in U.K. defense spending to 2.5 percent of GDP — as more NATO countries call for allies to step up spending in the face of a belligerent Russia.
But Starmer has refused to put a timetable on that spending pledge and said on his way to last week’s NATO summit that he would only do so when his government could afford it, and after a review of defense strategy has been conducted.
Therefore, while the king’s speech did include a commitment to a “strong defense based on” NATO values, it did not include Starmer’s defense spending pledge.
Iran’s election may have found someone to unite the different factions of Islam, but does that impact the politics for the West? Too early to say, but certainly a space to watch going forward. More to come.
1. Achieving unity within Islam through the known "Ummatic mandate." This involves adhering to the idea of Imam Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, and seeking reconciliation between Sunni and Shia. In essence, it assumes Islam as a common language enabling Muslims to interact and debate within the boundaries of this language. Technically, this unity within Islam is known as the "post-Mazhabi vision" (mazhab or madhhab meaning legal school in Arabic).
The Israeli – Hamas War is still going on, but the Western World reports it a success when you kill one individual (with no confirmation yet) with some tons of bombs, causing destruction in the millions and at the same time not really offering any solution politically. There is bickering within the Israeli parliament about the strategy and goal . Sounds like a Biden democracy with no leadership or objective, politics led again by the elite and industrial military complex? And the attacks simply escalate , no one really cares about the people or the hostages, so it looks like everyone talks in bombs? Well Chuck Schumer is calling now for a new president in Israel and the US, which only proves that he and Joe Biden are the ultimate politicians. Well, you need to kill more to get into the record books , research on your own what all the dead really changed?
In summary for the episode, not only the US but the entire Western World seems to be split into war parties, hard to talk peace and perhaps the failed attempt on Former President Trump (if you look at the investigation, it sure looks like no one really tried to prevent the attack) is a predicament. If Biden will run again and wins, the wars will not end. If Michelle Obama or Kamala Harris gets the nod and wins the elections, wars, including civil wars, are the next escalation; both of the latter are litigators, not lawyers or reasonable common-sense people. Litigators are trained autocrats.
Attorneys who specialize in litigation
Litigators are attorneys who specialize in litigation, or taking legal action against people and organizations 1 2 3 . They are involved in all phases of the litigation process from beginning to end 1 . Litigators represent one party in a legal case and help them take or defend a legal action against their opponent in a dispute or litigation 3 . They spend much of their time debating cases in a courtroom to get the best outcome for their client 3 .




