Geopolitical Focus - August, 2024 # 2

86 – 47 : No more drinks for the President - That was Mr. Comey’s message from the beach .

As the tariff negotiations with China are currently underway in Switzerland, it appears the US and UK have agreed to a deal that seems to be an icebreaker in the ongoing saga of tariffs. However, in the end, there will be changes to the world order and a shift in focus toward more discussions about saving the planet rather than war. As of this writing, a 90-day pause with China was agreed , lowering tariffs, while China will likely have to consider some of the US demands. Here is a lesson in journalistic economies ? Friend shoring demonstrates that there are no friends or foes in politics , only interests. Even when the world’s resources were not material but simply dirt—more or less fertile—even in agricultural societies, wars and contests were common, whether for territory, ideology, or personal gain. So when people promote friend shoring, it’s more complicated these days. Just look at rare earths—it's not just dirt, is it? Friend shoring for military technology is another example; read about it for yourself. Still, there is ongoing dialogue but no long-term resolution. After Trump’s plan to control Gaza, Israel appears set to take charge instead, once again negotiating for the release of hostages and the evacuation of civilians , while the world looks on as bystanders . If trade can solve the problem , then make a deal. Here’s some food for thought —liberals may be rebellious about it, but the trend all over Europe is clear: MAGA is going global, especially with an economy in tatters and failing negotiations with Ukraine. There are more sanctions, but what can they sanction that the rest of the world cannot counter? The EU is simply a bureaucratic ideology serving its own interests. The EU wants more liberal students —which is fine, as long as we keep the STEM talent. They need more protesters , as long as the UK remains the leading provider of education ? European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Monday slammed U.S. President Donald Trump's campaign against American higher education as she unveiled a half-billion-euro plan to attract foreign researchers.

May 8, a day in history, marks the end of WWII in Europe with the surrender of Germany , but was it really an ending? As with many wars, especially the ongoing Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, and the renewed animosities between India and Pakistan, one might wonder: have enough people died in wars? Perhaps some wars are justified, but often only after provocation. If you consider the basics of relationship building, communication is a key concept, but there is a difference between communication and simply talking. Perhaps we need more communicators and unified voices in government, whether rooted in realism or liberalism . Are these better choices, or in the end, are NGOs and individual voices the problem after all? We hope that reason will prevail—the only lasting fundamental principle—but is it really, or is it just another cause or excuse? Reason, the cause of an event or situation , or something that provides an excuse or explanation : War forever, according to this lawyer, yes . The UN Security Council is another voice that only speaks after the war, sometimes fueling the fire. Consider the Oxford Guide to Treaties —are these more sources of conflict than resolution? And historians—well, some of them are just presenting a version of their own vision of the world. How was Germany rebuilt after WWII ? Was it help on one side, and taking what you can on the other? The USSR suffered greatly and had to rebuild on its own, but why was the offer of the Marshall Plan rejected—was it due to mistrust, as we see today? Perhaps the reset button requires talks among all, but please, let the haters and ideologues out of the room—only communicators and stakeholders should be present, haters out, which probably means no Selinsky. Beginning immediately after the German surrender and continuing for the next two years, the United States pursued a vigorous program to harvest all technological and scientific know-how, as well as all patents in Germany. John Gimbel comes to the conclusion in his book, Science Technology and Reparations: Exploitation and Plunder in Post-war Germany, that the "intellectual reparations" taken by the U.S. and the UK amounted to close to $10 billion, equivalent to around $150 billion in 2024, [3] [4] concurrent to Operation Paperclip . The plea for a two-party political system (translation needed) stands in contrast to the idea of a global one-party or multi-party system as seen in European countries. Attempts at a global one-party system were made by the Romans and some other early cultures , but none proved sustainable by force or government—though that was before the advent of modern communications. Would things be different today? There are still forces hoping that may be realized, for global peace or power, as reflected in Elon Musk’s warnings about a single world government, Einstein’s global perspective , and people attempting to establish it, such as government by AI and supercomputer . Compare that to today’s European coalition building —for example, in Germany, Black/Blue coalitions seem politically unfeasible. In multi-party systems, the need to form coalitions to gain power may end in stalemates and concessions to the detriment of the people. Here is an overview of global systems and drivers of globalization . The ongoing cat-and-mouse game between advocates for peace and war continues as representatives try to negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict. Does it matter that Europe seems unified in the effort to defeat Russia with sanctions and arms, while the US seems to favor a negotiated peace? You can argue endlessly that Putin is the aggressor and invaded, but he will counter that with claims about NATO expansion and broken treaties by the West . Is Germany evolving into the powerhouse of Europe, as it should be? After the election and the ousting of Chancellor Scholz, Friedrich Merz has somehow managed to establish himself as the new leader and has immediately begun to exert influence over Europe—at least, that’s what the German “Democrats” are hoping for. So, when Trump appoints loyalists, it's called a dictatorship, but when Germany does it, it's considered democratic? Also worth noting: another Carnegie piece—and apparently every member of the German Cabinet favors war? Expect Germany's defense Minister to keep Kaja Kallas as informant, hating in politics is never a good start. Imagine, 5 years to build up the military and then eliminate the hate, for good, using the Ukraine invasion as a reason. Merz has deliberately centralized foreign and security policy coordination in the chancellery. To start, he has done away with the long-standing tradition of giving the Foreign Office to the main coalition partner, a practice that baked in foreign-policy dysfunction by setting up a separate power base held by a different political party. Now, for the first time since 1966, the chancellor and foreign minister will be from the same party—in this case, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). New Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul is a party loyalist who will ensure alignment rather than competition with the chancellor. Within the chancellery—where all important foreign-policy decisions are made—Merz has appointed close confidants to key posts: Jacob Schrot, a trusted trans-Atlanticist, as head of the newly created German National Security Council; veteran diplomat Günter Sautter as foreign-policy lead; and Michael Clauss to handle European Union affairs, which Merz wants to make a core strategic portfolio and to which Clauss brings credibility and experience, including significant work on China.

Remember the Biden-era stock market jubilations ? It was all about the Magnificent Seven —overhyped and overvalued. The tariff talk came at just the right time to disguise an overdue market correction. The administration framed it as “uncertainty over tariffs.” But no worries, like COVID, it will be “cured” by the same people who created it . Political noise on both sides continues to serve as distraction— like whistling at a referee during a soccer match. Are lawyers and investors the most destructive forces in America? On one side, there are legal maneuvers that deter people from investing. On the other, roll-up acquisitions concentrate wealth that was once shared broadly. Bernie Sanders is on his “Oligarchy Tour,” pointing fingers at Elon Musk—but what about private equity groups (PEGs) ? Are they not a form of oligarchy? And PEGs owning law firms is legal—and mostly supported by Democrats. Try buying a house and living in peace ; your appreciation goes to investors. Under Bernie, it might become a kleptocracy ; under Kamala, a kakistocracy. There are a variety of flavors of corruption. Currently, the most concerning kind is grand corruption . Grand corruption is when public institutions are co-opted by networks of ruling elites to steal public resources for their own private gain. It involves a wide variety of activities including bribery, extortion, nepotism, favoritism, cronyism, judicial fraud, accounting fraud, electoral fraud, public service fraud, embezzlement, influence peddling, and conflicts of interest. The “party of youth” —as someone once said, “If you’re still a socialist at 40, you have no brain.” Harsh? Maybe. But look at the Democratic Party: do they seem to get wiser with age? “If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is not a conservative by 40, he has no brain.” — Winston Churchill Why is fake news so persistent? It follows the same rule as bad customer service—the reputation sticks. On fake news, consider Isaiah Berlin and Friedrich Hayek , knights of classical liberalism. Maybe that’s why Trump won—elites don’t put food on the table. Liberalism and the Pursuit of Happiness The root of fascism, communism, and all totalitarian ideologies lies in the naïve belief that there is only one correct way to live and that intellectuals can determine it with the certainty of natural sciences. Liberalism, by contrast, does not prescribe a singular way of life and this is its strength. It enables individuals with diverse beliefs, goals, and ambitions to coexist. This principle is embodied in the Declaration of Independence, which proclaims the “pursuit of happiness”—a pursuit meant for individuals to discover, not for the state to dictate. This is the core belief of liberalism. With the Pope absent from climate advocacy, perhaps churches can fill the role . Whether lawyers act out of conviction or cash is debatable, but climate lawfare is on the rise. Are we heading back to gladiator justice—only with no one to fight? The public trust doctrine had little to do with environmental law until the 1970s, when Joseph Sax argued it could support lawsuits to defend public resources. Are law firms above the law ? Consider the government’s action against Perkins Coie , blocked by Judge Beryl Howell , an Obama appointee. Will we ever find answers to the big questions—like assassination attempts? President Trump’s executive order against Perkins Coie was ruled unconstitutional and retaliatory. It cannot be enforced. This ruling marks the biggest legal setback in Trump’s campaign against firms representing his political adversaries— many of which challenged the order in court . It’s all in the family. Once lawyers secure a case , the food chain never ends. Knowing the system matters—justice is second. And sometimes the lawyers themselves become the story. Abbe Lowell’s communications were ruled outside attorney-client privilege in a 2020 opinion by Judge Howell. The reason: potential evidence of crimes and involvement of non-lawyer third parties. And finally, on tariffs: if your population can’t afford the goods they produce, your export model collapses. Without a home market , tariffs eventually hit hard. Two years from now, Democrats may still hate DJT—but maybe they'll admit he saw it coming.

The betrayal of the American school system is evident when education becomes a secondary priority—supplanted by sports and social wellbeing. While some countries prioritize STEM in their education systems, the U.S. seems increasingly focused on “alternative” social issues. The value system now places lawyers, judges, and welfare programs front and center—paving the way for more lawfare, entertainment, and injustice dressed as justice. Yes, football players generate revenue , but so do scientists and engineers. Imagine if every ambulance chaser became an engineer designing fault-proof devices—the only downside? An hourly rate of $50 versus $250–$1500. Where is Congress in setting the tone? Nearly all members are lawyers. And while student loan debt exceeds $2.8 billion , we’re still debating whether to pay a third-grade volunteer assistant coach. It’s legal insanity. Next up? Pool, pickleball, darts, and cricket just to earn a buck. Maybe we should only have Division I colleges—and let sports fund all education. That, of course, would be a myth for the ACLU . Claudia Wilken is the jurist who will have the final say on the pending $2.8 billion settlement of a class-action lawsuit that is set to end the NCAA’s decades-old rules that have prohibited players from getting paid. It’s no exaggeration to say that the future of college sports rests on her decision. The deal Wilken is scrutinizing would award back pay to thousands of athletes, while allowing schools for the first time to pay their athletes directly from the billions of dollars they help generate. For an NCAA that had long sold the public on unpaid amateurs as central to the appeal of college sports, it is an earthquake. To athletes, it’s a revelation. European countries with apprenticeship systems educate roughly 60% of their college-age population. Even China implemented apprenticeships to address labor skill gaps. Meanwhile, the U.S. nurtures a college-for-everyone model, wasting millions for the profit of lenders and sports leagues that draft “free” talent. Sports are not an academic curriculum. The education and sports industries must be separated—eliminating the need to “draft” students to fill classrooms. The NFL could easily run junior leagues with the money colleges spend on coaches . Adopting apprenticeship programs in the U.S. would have clear benefits. But what happens to colleges that lose 60% of their students? And where does that leave the millions glued to TVs each March and fall? Education versus entertainment. With only 0.1% of college players turning pro, what happens to the 99.9% after graduation? Watching from the couch? In much of the world , especially in soccer, elite athletes are developed from a young age by professional clubs—not schools. Take Alan Carleton , as an example of how the system could succeed in the US.. The summer before his junior year, he became the first “homegrown” player to sign with Atlanta United FC in Major League Soccer. Atlanta United’s owner, Arthur Blank—who also owns the Atlanta Falcons—picked up Carleton from his Powder Springs, GA home in a Mercedes-Benz van to take him to a signing ceremony at The Varsity, a local Atlanta diner. Is it time for the U.S. to adopt a European-style model where pro clubs develop athletes and schools focus solely on academics? Another cultural debate making waves is the missed opportunity of not following seahorses in the sexual evolution cycle. Today, anything outside of “gender neutral” is treated as scientific radicalism. Gender ideology debates rage on, while perhaps Elon Musk has a solution he’d never use. Like it or not, we are male and female. Clothes and cosmetics don’t change biology. Feelings— no matter how intense —aren’t science. Ask Meta AI , or just be yourself—and be tolerant in both directions. But that's not their only oddity. Seahorses swim vertically, lack pelvic fins, have bony plates over their bodies, and move their eyeballs independently. Perhaps most distinctively, the males carry babies and give birth to them instead of females.