Geopolitical Focus - December, 2024 # 2

December 30, 2024

2025: A Call for Peace Amid Power Struggles and Global Tensions

Is the Ukrainian nightmare coming to an end? While we continue to hear stories of Ukrainian heroes destroying everything Russian, elevating the conflict to assassination is another level. Perhaps we should focus on eliminating the leaders driving the war and replacing them with those seeking peace? Perhaps a vote could end it as well, though by EU standards, a 60:40 vote is only democratic when it aligns with the EU/Western agenda.

After more than two years of grinding conflict, Ukrainians are increasingly weary of the war with Russia. In Gallup’s latest surveys of Ukraine, conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible. Nearly four in 10 Ukrainians (38%) believe their country should keep fighting until victory.

However, if you ask the NATO Secretary General , in the same breath that Ukraine is struggling, he speaks of putting them in a position of strength for negotiation. Burning through 18-year-olds for such goals only adds to the tragedy. Strategic thinkers advocating these plans seem disconnected from the human cost, their delusion underscored by weapons with questionable legality in international contexts.

If NATO were led by Kaja Kallas , NATO troops might already be engaged in the conflict. Pro-war rhetoric from figures like her and Boris Johnson highlights a preference for military solutions over diplomacy. Johnson, whose tenure ended in resignation, epitomized such misguided approaches.

A Russian newspaper questions how the situation escalated so far, while power games from the EU and NATO suggest a broader agenda of Western expansion. Irresponsible posturing on both sides and concerns about Zelenskyy’s increasingly authoritarian tendencies only exacerbate the crisis.

The European Union, while striving for dominance, risks destroying Europe in the process. Self-proclaimed democratic leaders, with questionable records, are rewarded at the expense of EU citizens. Bureaucratic power plays rival autocratic regimes, undermining the principles they claim to uphold.

Elections in Georgia, Austria, and Germany show a troubling trend: the exclusion of popular parties under the guise of protecting democracy. These actions ignore voter will and maintain the status quo, raising concerns about the future of representative governance in Europe.

Elon Musk, often a polarizing figure for the left and green movements, operates on principles that many fail to understand. For Musk, money is merely a tool; his true strength lies in his intelligence. Even figures like Fetterman recognize some positives in his approach, which is clearly not rooted in traditional interests.

"I operate on the physics approach to analysis. You boil things down to the first principles or fundamental truths in a particular area and then you reason up from there." Read here .

Compare Elon Musk to other billionaires like Bloomberg or Mark Cuban. Love him or hate him, Musk remains a unique presence, blending genius with unrelenting ambition. It would have taken governments 25 years to address similar challenges that Musk has tackled efficiently. Are there any comparable efforts near Washington, D.C.?

If you cannot beat them, join them. The U.S. should reconsider its stance on competing militarily with China. The resources spent on proxy wars in Ukraine and defending Israel are dwarfed by China's investments in military power and global influence. President Xi exemplifies leadership with his active presence on global trips, unlike the U.S.'s inconsistent strategies since 2020.

Syria: Will it become part of greater Israel ? Looking at the Middle East, Turkey emerges as a significant power player, leaving Israel isolated. The 1948 British decisions failed to foresee the current challenges. The U.S. struggles with transparency, even in counting soldiers.

Remember the global reaction to Navalny's death? Was he a hero or a tragic figure used by Western media in their propaganda against Putin? Who will the media anoint next? Zelensky is certainly trying hard.

How many peace think tanks exist worldwide? Are they genuine think tanks or simply tools for shaping opinion and representing specific interests?

A final attempt by Blinken to secure a legacy: a ceasefire here, preventing ISIS control of Syria by cooperating with Turkey, but the killing continues. His tenure reflects four years of diplomatic failures, significant expenditures, and a fragmented world—mirroring his administration.

Let us hope that 2025 brings reason, tolerance, and dialogue, leading to peace. Ideology and power struggles have created enough wars worldwide—it is time for change, beginning at home.

Happy New Year.

May 29, 2025
As a continuation of the summit in Helsinki , the following conference that included Presidents Bush and Gorbachev took place in November 1990 in Paris. The conference included 34 nations, each a part of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) . The conference resulted in the signing of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty by members of NATO and the Warsaw Pact. The states of the CSCE also made arrangements to hold similar high-level political meetings regularly to build upon efforts to prevent conflict, control arms, and safeguard elections within these countries. [4] Netanyahu, Israel’s Premier, invokes the Old Testament—an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth. Since Israel and its supporters portray it as the homeland of Jesus, perhaps the phrase love your enemies was forgotten when the British mandate over Palestine expired and the State of Israel was born—with official recognition from both the U.S. and USSR. With the latest escalation in the conflict and a vow to eliminate Hamas , it appears that the escalation includes the elimination of Gaza . Those unable to flee are seemingly treated as legitimate targets in what some interpret as a strategy to clear the territory for Israeli expansion. What about Trump’s plan to buy the territory and rebuild? That would involve resettling many refugees, but is that worse than killing them? Trump is turning his focus to the broader Middle East , aiming to unite the “non-violent” actors and build a peace coalition, thereby restraining Iran’s allies (presumed to have UN protection), who are often seen as the root of instability. So why are evangelicals supporting the violence —alongside the Jewish elite— while the Left and Europe begin to reconsider their stance ? Are all Palestinians terrorists? What is the true meaning of “from the River to the Sea” —a call for democracy or a religious conflict between Islam and Christianity? And then there’s the UN, watching? And the new Pope, pleading for aid —but peace talks? Only Trump? Shortly after his inauguration, Chancellor Merz made his mark on German politics by deploying permanent troops to Lithuania— you be the judge —possibly to support allies under the guise of protection. His actions won’t help global stability, and insiders in Germany do not dismiss the possibility of aggression reminiscent of WWII, now reframed under the narrative that Russia is the enemy. He will certainly support Zelensky unconditionally, using the war as justification to rebuild EU military strength. European Union leaders concluded a busy defense-focused week by endorsing a landmark plan to unlock €800 billion ($866 billion) in European military spending—though internal political divisions remain. Nelson Mandela, upon becoming South Africa’s president, emphasized moving forward together—not retaliating for the past. One reason for his divorce was reportedly that his wife had a more radical, vengeance-driven outlook, which he believed was incompatible with building a democratic society. Yes, apartheid was real, but reversing the oppression with retribution only prolongs emotional wounds. One has to ask what is just . Perhaps Trump has a point— crime is rampant . But of course, there are always two sides to a story .
May 23, 2025
86 – 47 : No more drinks for the President - That was Mr. Comey’s message from the beach .
May 20, 2025
As the tariff negotiations with China are currently underway in Switzerland, it appears the US and UK have agreed to a deal that seems to be an icebreaker in the ongoing saga of tariffs. However, in the end, there will be changes to the world order and a shift in focus toward more discussions about saving the planet rather than war. As of this writing, a 90-day pause with China was agreed , lowering tariffs, while China will likely have to consider some of the US demands. Here is a lesson in journalistic economies ? Friend shoring demonstrates that there are no friends or foes in politics , only interests. Even when the world’s resources were not material but simply dirt—more or less fertile—even in agricultural societies, wars and contests were common, whether for territory, ideology, or personal gain. So when people promote friend shoring, it’s more complicated these days. Just look at rare earths—it's not just dirt, is it? Friend shoring for military technology is another example; read about it for yourself. Still, there is ongoing dialogue but no long-term resolution. After Trump’s plan to control Gaza, Israel appears set to take charge instead, once again negotiating for the release of hostages and the evacuation of civilians , while the world looks on as bystanders . If trade can solve the problem , then make a deal. Here’s some food for thought —liberals may be rebellious about it, but the trend all over Europe is clear: MAGA is going global, especially with an economy in tatters and failing negotiations with Ukraine. There are more sanctions, but what can they sanction that the rest of the world cannot counter? The EU is simply a bureaucratic ideology serving its own interests. The EU wants more liberal students —which is fine, as long as we keep the STEM talent. They need more protesters , as long as the UK remains the leading provider of education ? European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Monday slammed U.S. President Donald Trump's campaign against American higher education as she unveiled a half-billion-euro plan to attract foreign researchers.
May 16, 2025
May 8, a day in history, marks the end of WWII in Europe with the surrender of Germany , but was it really an ending? As with many wars, especially the ongoing Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, and the renewed animosities between India and Pakistan, one might wonder: have enough people died in wars? Perhaps some wars are justified, but often only after provocation. If you consider the basics of relationship building, communication is a key concept, but there is a difference between communication and simply talking. Perhaps we need more communicators and unified voices in government, whether rooted in realism or liberalism . Are these better choices, or in the end, are NGOs and individual voices the problem after all? We hope that reason will prevail—the only lasting fundamental principle—but is it really, or is it just another cause or excuse? Reason, the cause of an event or situation , or something that provides an excuse or explanation : War forever, according to this lawyer, yes . The UN Security Council is another voice that only speaks after the war, sometimes fueling the fire. Consider the Oxford Guide to Treaties —are these more sources of conflict than resolution? And historians—well, some of them are just presenting a version of their own vision of the world. How was Germany rebuilt after WWII ? Was it help on one side, and taking what you can on the other? The USSR suffered greatly and had to rebuild on its own, but why was the offer of the Marshall Plan rejected—was it due to mistrust, as we see today? Perhaps the reset button requires talks among all, but please, let the haters and ideologues out of the room—only communicators and stakeholders should be present, haters out, which probably means no Selinsky. Beginning immediately after the German surrender and continuing for the next two years, the United States pursued a vigorous program to harvest all technological and scientific know-how, as well as all patents in Germany. John Gimbel comes to the conclusion in his book, Science Technology and Reparations: Exploitation and Plunder in Post-war Germany, that the "intellectual reparations" taken by the U.S. and the UK amounted to close to $10 billion, equivalent to around $150 billion in 2024, [3] [4] concurrent to Operation Paperclip . The plea for a two-party political system (translation needed) stands in contrast to the idea of a global one-party or multi-party system as seen in European countries. Attempts at a global one-party system were made by the Romans and some other early cultures , but none proved sustainable by force or government—though that was before the advent of modern communications. Would things be different today? There are still forces hoping that may be realized, for global peace or power, as reflected in Elon Musk’s warnings about a single world government, Einstein’s global perspective , and people attempting to establish it, such as government by AI and supercomputer . Compare that to today’s European coalition building —for example, in Germany, Black/Blue coalitions seem politically unfeasible. In multi-party systems, the need to form coalitions to gain power may end in stalemates and concessions to the detriment of the people. Here is an overview of global systems and drivers of globalization . The ongoing cat-and-mouse game between advocates for peace and war continues as representatives try to negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict. Does it matter that Europe seems unified in the effort to defeat Russia with sanctions and arms, while the US seems to favor a negotiated peace? You can argue endlessly that Putin is the aggressor and invaded, but he will counter that with claims about NATO expansion and broken treaties by the West . Is Germany evolving into the powerhouse of Europe, as it should be? After the election and the ousting of Chancellor Scholz, Friedrich Merz has somehow managed to establish himself as the new leader and has immediately begun to exert influence over Europe—at least, that’s what the German “Democrats” are hoping for. So, when Trump appoints loyalists, it's called a dictatorship, but when Germany does it, it's considered democratic? Also worth noting: another Carnegie piece—and apparently every member of the German Cabinet favors war? Expect Germany's defense Minister to keep Kaja Kallas as informant, hating in politics is never a good start. Imagine, 5 years to build up the military and then eliminate the hate, for good, using the Ukraine invasion as a reason. Merz has deliberately centralized foreign and security policy coordination in the chancellery. To start, he has done away with the long-standing tradition of giving the Foreign Office to the main coalition partner, a practice that baked in foreign-policy dysfunction by setting up a separate power base held by a different political party. Now, for the first time since 1966, the chancellor and foreign minister will be from the same party—in this case, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). New Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul is a party loyalist who will ensure alignment rather than competition with the chancellor. Within the chancellery—where all important foreign-policy decisions are made—Merz has appointed close confidants to key posts: Jacob Schrot, a trusted trans-Atlanticist, as head of the newly created German National Security Council; veteran diplomat Günter Sautter as foreign-policy lead; and Michael Clauss to handle European Union affairs, which Merz wants to make a core strategic portfolio and to which Clauss brings credibility and experience, including significant work on China.
May 9, 2025
Remember the Biden-era stock market jubilations ? It was all about the Magnificent Seven —overhyped and overvalued. The tariff talk came at just the right time to disguise an overdue market correction. The administration framed it as “uncertainty over tariffs.” But no worries, like COVID, it will be “cured” by the same people who created it . Political noise on both sides continues to serve as distraction— like whistling at a referee during a soccer match. Are lawyers and investors the most destructive forces in America? On one side, there are legal maneuvers that deter people from investing. On the other, roll-up acquisitions concentrate wealth that was once shared broadly. Bernie Sanders is on his “Oligarchy Tour,” pointing fingers at Elon Musk—but what about private equity groups (PEGs) ? Are they not a form of oligarchy? And PEGs owning law firms is legal—and mostly supported by Democrats. Try buying a house and living in peace ; your appreciation goes to investors. Under Bernie, it might become a kleptocracy ; under Kamala, a kakistocracy. There are a variety of flavors of corruption. Currently, the most concerning kind is grand corruption . Grand corruption is when public institutions are co-opted by networks of ruling elites to steal public resources for their own private gain. It involves a wide variety of activities including bribery, extortion, nepotism, favoritism, cronyism, judicial fraud, accounting fraud, electoral fraud, public service fraud, embezzlement, influence peddling, and conflicts of interest. The “party of youth” —as someone once said, “If you’re still a socialist at 40, you have no brain.” Harsh? Maybe. But look at the Democratic Party: do they seem to get wiser with age? “If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is not a conservative by 40, he has no brain.” — Winston Churchill Why is fake news so persistent? It follows the same rule as bad customer service—the reputation sticks. On fake news, consider Isaiah Berlin and Friedrich Hayek , knights of classical liberalism. Maybe that’s why Trump won—elites don’t put food on the table. Liberalism and the Pursuit of Happiness The root of fascism, communism, and all totalitarian ideologies lies in the naïve belief that there is only one correct way to live and that intellectuals can determine it with the certainty of natural sciences. Liberalism, by contrast, does not prescribe a singular way of life and this is its strength. It enables individuals with diverse beliefs, goals, and ambitions to coexist. This principle is embodied in the Declaration of Independence, which proclaims the “pursuit of happiness”—a pursuit meant for individuals to discover, not for the state to dictate. This is the core belief of liberalism. With the Pope absent from climate advocacy, perhaps churches can fill the role . Whether lawyers act out of conviction or cash is debatable, but climate lawfare is on the rise. Are we heading back to gladiator justice—only with no one to fight? The public trust doctrine had little to do with environmental law until the 1970s, when Joseph Sax argued it could support lawsuits to defend public resources. Are law firms above the law ? Consider the government’s action against Perkins Coie , blocked by Judge Beryl Howell , an Obama appointee. Will we ever find answers to the big questions—like assassination attempts? President Trump’s executive order against Perkins Coie was ruled unconstitutional and retaliatory. It cannot be enforced. This ruling marks the biggest legal setback in Trump’s campaign against firms representing his political adversaries— many of which challenged the order in court . It’s all in the family. Once lawyers secure a case , the food chain never ends. Knowing the system matters—justice is second. And sometimes the lawyers themselves become the story. Abbe Lowell’s communications were ruled outside attorney-client privilege in a 2020 opinion by Judge Howell. The reason: potential evidence of crimes and involvement of non-lawyer third parties. And finally, on tariffs: if your population can’t afford the goods they produce, your export model collapses. Without a home market , tariffs eventually hit hard. Two years from now, Democrats may still hate DJT—but maybe they'll admit he saw it coming.
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