Energy - October, 2023

November 2, 2023

Energy – October, 2023

Are dreams of electric vehicles (EVs) coming to an end? Perhaps not, but there is a growing shift in sentiment. The initial all-out optimism, promoted by some media and supporters who overlook the facts, is giving way to a more realistic or pessimistic outlook. Ultimately, it will be the consumers who decide the fate of EVs, and their hesitancy stems from three key concerns:


  1. Price: The cost of EVs remains a significant obstacle for many potential buyers.

  2. Battery Life and Sustainability Issues: Questions persist about battery recycling and whether lithium is a long-term solution or if there are viable alternatives.

  3. Charging Infrastructure and Time: Concerns about charging infrastructure and the time required for recharging continue to be hurdles.

While EV sales continue to rise, driven by enthusiasts and more affluent buyers seeking to showcase their "green" credentials, as well as institutional users benefiting from taxpayer incentives, the coexistence of EVs and traditional fossil fuel vehicles well into the 2050s seems increasingly likely. It might even lead to scenarios where hydrogen or, in a less optimistic future, horses return as viable transportation options. This shift reflects a similar buyer profile and the pursuit of sustainability.

It may sound unconventional, but in the long run, it appears to be the only path to true sustainability. After all, most current transportation methods rely on mined resources, and eventually, we could run out of essential materials like metals and plastics since they don't grow on trees. With a global population of 12 billion people, the demand for resources could outstrip both food and natural resources like trees, especially when considering that around 30% of land might be covered by solar panels and wind turbines to power AI computers and other electric essentials.


While EV sales have been growing healthily for the past couple of years, that trend has accelerated this year. US consumers bought nearly 300,000 new battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in the second quarter – a new record, according to Cox.

Not only is that more than 48% higher than last year, but it’s also more EVs than were sold in all of 2019. That’s not even counting sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which can run on gas or electricity and a battery that can be recharged with either a charging cable or a generator powered by the engine.


Cox Automotive now predicts sales of fully electric vehicles in the US will break the 1 million vehicle barrier in 2023 for the first time ever. More than 557,000 BEVs have already been sold so far this year through the end of the second quarter.

Experts say EV sales are being propelled by a number of compounding factors, such as price cuts, a wider variety of available vehicles and more government and manufacturing investments.


“It’s just this perfect storm of all these things coming together,” said Stephanie Valdez-Streaty, the director of industry insights at Cox Automotive.


The Inflation Reduction Act is also driving sales growth, Valdez-Streaty told CNN.

How many Tesla vehicles were delivered in 2023? Tesla's vehicle deliveries in the third quarter of 2023 amounted to over 435,000 units. Quarterly deliveries decreased by around 6.67 percent during the third quarter of 2023, compared with the second quarter of that same year. Between April and June 2023, deliveries crossed the 466,000-unit threshold, a new record for the brand.

Price - here's an article from 2021 and one from the UK. Initially optimistic in the early 2020s, suddenly, reality sets in with many questions that should have been asked before pumping trillions of government money into the industry.


Ford is pumping the brakes on $12 billion in planned EV investments, including a battery factory. General Motors nixed its target of building 400,000 EVs by the middle of 2024 and delayed the opening of a revamped factory that will produce electric GMC and Chevrolet trucks.


Both said they were responding to slower-than-expected growth in EV demand.


It's true that EV demand has shown signs of a slowdown. Although US sales of electric cars have exploded in recent years, increasing for 13 quarters straight, the rate of that growth has tapered slightly. That's pushed some dealers to turn away some EV allocations and forced automakers to pile on incentives to keep vehicles selling.


President Biden, along with the U.S. Departments of Transportation and Energy, is investing $5 billion over five years to launch a national EV charging network. The National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Formula Program provides over $1.5 billion in funding for states to build out electric car charging networks.


It was just recently announced that all 50 states, along with Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico submitted their plans on time and have had them approved. This means that reimbursement funds are now available to all U.S. states and territories. Once complete, the charging network will service about 75,000 miles of highway across the U.S.


Hopefully, most of the states will use the funds to deploy DC Fast Charging stations. However, it’s not required, and the funds can be used for a variety of charging-related projects and options. For this reason, we’ll have to wait and see how it all plays out.


Battery life and development: Expect some positive results with less space needed and longer recharge sequences. However, do not anticipate miracles, as the current investments in lithium do not indicate rapid improvements, possibly not until 2040.


Charging Infrastructure: Can the US sustain a dual-system infrastructure?


In the first quarter of 2023, there were around 286 million vehicles operating on roads throughout the United States. Almost 38.4 million used vehicles changed owners in the U.S. between the first quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, while new registrations of vehicles came to about 13.9 million units during that period.


Give or take 10 years life expectancy of a Fossil Fuel Car, 2040 would probably be an all-electric world if as of 2025, only EV are on the Markt. Would such a scenario not ask for a regional approach starting with high populated areas, it probably would make more sense to subsidize Rental cars for long distance travel or remote travel from an EV hub then subsidize new sales and charging stations in the wilderness, and use the Gas station infrastructure to offer chargers, use Buc-ee's  or build them around malls, they can use traffic. And make it mandatory that each home has a charging station, and make the once on the road paid by the customer. You do not get free Gas at a Holiday Inn, but free chargers as in parking Garages? Such a scenario would also be more sustainable for the Car Manufacturer’s, as currently most investments into the EV manufacturing are on hold? Or do we all have questions about electro mobility, including the government? 


Additionally, making it mandatory for each home to have a charging station and having customers pay for the charging service on the road could be a sustainable solution. This approach might also be more beneficial for car manufacturers, as many investments in EV manufacturing are currently on hold. There seems to be ongoing uncertainty and questions about electric mobility, including government policies.


The U.S. government's blueprint for battery production relies on lithium-based technology, aiming to create good-paying union jobs. However, it raises questions about the security of the Southern border. It's worth noting that during Jennifer Granholm's term as Michigan's governor, many people were leaving the state. The future outlook on batteries from MIT provides further insights into the technology.


Projections suggest that EVs might phase out by 2050 along with the hype. Explore some scenarios here.


Regarding forest fires and the science behind them, it's essential to consider the potential differences between scientific understanding and political actions.


And here the blue print from the US Government to get the Batteries, its all Lithium based with good paying Union jobs, sound like the Southern Border is secure, or check Granholm’ term as Michigan’ Governor, everybody was leaving, and here some more future outlook on Batteries from the MIT. 


Projections, EV’ will be gone by 2050 and so is the hype? See some scenario’ here. 


Forest Fires and the Science, any difference to politics? - The case of Patrick Brown is making headlines. In September, the American climate scientist described in an online post how he manipulated a study on forest fires. He overemphasized the influence of global warming on fires and ignored other causes. In this way, he wanted to ensure that he could publish in the renowned journal Nature.


Brown lamented that scientists who want to succeed in their research have to serve the narrative of dire global warming. "Climate science is now less about understanding the complexity of the world and more about serving as a kind of Cassandra and urgently warning the public about the dangers of climate change."


Windmills, often touted as already used by our ancestors, but no one in the Industry looks at Wind patterns over 30 years, (lifetime of such sustainable thing, if lucky) which actually do change, read here how to blame climate change for it, or better 1000 years, but its all our fault. The result, the overzealous activists managed to spend a lot of money on projects, that look good on paper, but are simply not feasible. And then they blame simple logistics? And here some others, inflation is down to normal according to the inflation reduction act, what is down is the efficiency of this constructs when they are on the field, because the wind is changing perhaps 20%? If you can find a statistic let me know. And here some projections.



Investment is one side, cost the other. According to the latest spot benchmarks offered by sellers to buyers priced in megawatts per hour (MWh), the price of electricity in Germany has increased by 321.80% since the beginning of 2023, reaching 62.89 EUR/MWh as of October 31, 2023 1. The average price of electricity for households in Germany was 40.07 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) in the second half of 2022, compared to 32.16 ct/kWh in the previous year 2.


And here is a great example; if the Sun shines and the Wind blows, once we calculate the storage prices for the future, we may be in for a surprise. 


Perhaps subsidizing solar panels on every roof, coupled with energy storage, could offer an efficient alternative to government investments. This approach would enable most EV charging to occur at home, covering about 80% of charging needs, while the remainder could be fulfilled through rentals. Additionally, focusing energy infrastructure around major users makes sense.


But there's another concern. AI is advancing rapidly and finding applications in various sectors, from autonomous vehicles to healthcare and economics. Scientists worldwide are eager to harness AI's potential for positive changes.


An Amsterdam-based scientific team has discovered that AI's electricity consumption is already comparable to that of an entire country. Data processing centers, including AI, currently contribute to 4-5% of global energy consumption, which increases to 8% when you factor in standard hardware like computers and phones.


Projections indicate that this share could surge to 30% in the near future. For example, training an AI model involves the continuous operation of multiple graphics cards, each consuming around 1,000 watts, a process that spans several weeks.

It's evident that AI systems demand significant energy. However, it's highly likely that solutions will be found in the future to address this issue effectively.

May 23, 2025
86 – 47 : No more drinks for the President - That was Mr. Comey’s message from the beach .
May 20, 2025
As the tariff negotiations with China are currently underway in Switzerland, it appears the US and UK have agreed to a deal that seems to be an icebreaker in the ongoing saga of tariffs. However, in the end, there will be changes to the world order and a shift in focus toward more discussions about saving the planet rather than war. As of this writing, a 90-day pause with China was agreed , lowering tariffs, while China will likely have to consider some of the US demands. Here is a lesson in journalistic economies ? Friend shoring demonstrates that there are no friends or foes in politics , only interests. Even when the world’s resources were not material but simply dirt—more or less fertile—even in agricultural societies, wars and contests were common, whether for territory, ideology, or personal gain. So when people promote friend shoring, it’s more complicated these days. Just look at rare earths—it's not just dirt, is it? Friend shoring for military technology is another example; read about it for yourself. Still, there is ongoing dialogue but no long-term resolution. After Trump’s plan to control Gaza, Israel appears set to take charge instead, once again negotiating for the release of hostages and the evacuation of civilians , while the world looks on as bystanders . If trade can solve the problem , then make a deal. Here’s some food for thought —liberals may be rebellious about it, but the trend all over Europe is clear: MAGA is going global, especially with an economy in tatters and failing negotiations with Ukraine. There are more sanctions, but what can they sanction that the rest of the world cannot counter? The EU is simply a bureaucratic ideology serving its own interests. The EU wants more liberal students —which is fine, as long as we keep the STEM talent. They need more protesters , as long as the UK remains the leading provider of education ? European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Monday slammed U.S. President Donald Trump's campaign against American higher education as she unveiled a half-billion-euro plan to attract foreign researchers.
May 16, 2025
May 8, a day in history, marks the end of WWII in Europe with the surrender of Germany , but was it really an ending? As with many wars, especially the ongoing Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, and the renewed animosities between India and Pakistan, one might wonder: have enough people died in wars? Perhaps some wars are justified, but often only after provocation. If you consider the basics of relationship building, communication is a key concept, but there is a difference between communication and simply talking. Perhaps we need more communicators and unified voices in government, whether rooted in realism or liberalism . Are these better choices, or in the end, are NGOs and individual voices the problem after all? We hope that reason will prevail—the only lasting fundamental principle—but is it really, or is it just another cause or excuse? Reason, the cause of an event or situation , or something that provides an excuse or explanation : War forever, according to this lawyer, yes . The UN Security Council is another voice that only speaks after the war, sometimes fueling the fire. Consider the Oxford Guide to Treaties —are these more sources of conflict than resolution? And historians—well, some of them are just presenting a version of their own vision of the world. How was Germany rebuilt after WWII ? Was it help on one side, and taking what you can on the other? The USSR suffered greatly and had to rebuild on its own, but why was the offer of the Marshall Plan rejected—was it due to mistrust, as we see today? Perhaps the reset button requires talks among all, but please, let the haters and ideologues out of the room—only communicators and stakeholders should be present, haters out, which probably means no Selinsky. Beginning immediately after the German surrender and continuing for the next two years, the United States pursued a vigorous program to harvest all technological and scientific know-how, as well as all patents in Germany. John Gimbel comes to the conclusion in his book, Science Technology and Reparations: Exploitation and Plunder in Post-war Germany, that the "intellectual reparations" taken by the U.S. and the UK amounted to close to $10 billion, equivalent to around $150 billion in 2024, [3] [4] concurrent to Operation Paperclip . The plea for a two-party political system (translation needed) stands in contrast to the idea of a global one-party or multi-party system as seen in European countries. Attempts at a global one-party system were made by the Romans and some other early cultures , but none proved sustainable by force or government—though that was before the advent of modern communications. Would things be different today? There are still forces hoping that may be realized, for global peace or power, as reflected in Elon Musk’s warnings about a single world government, Einstein’s global perspective , and people attempting to establish it, such as government by AI and supercomputer . Compare that to today’s European coalition building —for example, in Germany, Black/Blue coalitions seem politically unfeasible. In multi-party systems, the need to form coalitions to gain power may end in stalemates and concessions to the detriment of the people. Here is an overview of global systems and drivers of globalization . The ongoing cat-and-mouse game between advocates for peace and war continues as representatives try to negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict. Does it matter that Europe seems unified in the effort to defeat Russia with sanctions and arms, while the US seems to favor a negotiated peace? You can argue endlessly that Putin is the aggressor and invaded, but he will counter that with claims about NATO expansion and broken treaties by the West . Is Germany evolving into the powerhouse of Europe, as it should be? After the election and the ousting of Chancellor Scholz, Friedrich Merz has somehow managed to establish himself as the new leader and has immediately begun to exert influence over Europe—at least, that’s what the German “Democrats” are hoping for. So, when Trump appoints loyalists, it's called a dictatorship, but when Germany does it, it's considered democratic? Also worth noting: another Carnegie piece—and apparently every member of the German Cabinet favors war? Expect Germany's defense Minister to keep Kaja Kallas as informant, hating in politics is never a good start. Imagine, 5 years to build up the military and then eliminate the hate, for good, using the Ukraine invasion as a reason. Merz has deliberately centralized foreign and security policy coordination in the chancellery. To start, he has done away with the long-standing tradition of giving the Foreign Office to the main coalition partner, a practice that baked in foreign-policy dysfunction by setting up a separate power base held by a different political party. Now, for the first time since 1966, the chancellor and foreign minister will be from the same party—in this case, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). New Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul is a party loyalist who will ensure alignment rather than competition with the chancellor. Within the chancellery—where all important foreign-policy decisions are made—Merz has appointed close confidants to key posts: Jacob Schrot, a trusted trans-Atlanticist, as head of the newly created German National Security Council; veteran diplomat Günter Sautter as foreign-policy lead; and Michael Clauss to handle European Union affairs, which Merz wants to make a core strategic portfolio and to which Clauss brings credibility and experience, including significant work on China.
May 9, 2025
Remember the Biden-era stock market jubilations ? It was all about the Magnificent Seven —overhyped and overvalued. The tariff talk came at just the right time to disguise an overdue market correction. The administration framed it as “uncertainty over tariffs.” But no worries, like COVID, it will be “cured” by the same people who created it . Political noise on both sides continues to serve as distraction— like whistling at a referee during a soccer match. Are lawyers and investors the most destructive forces in America? On one side, there are legal maneuvers that deter people from investing. On the other, roll-up acquisitions concentrate wealth that was once shared broadly. Bernie Sanders is on his “Oligarchy Tour,” pointing fingers at Elon Musk—but what about private equity groups (PEGs) ? Are they not a form of oligarchy? And PEGs owning law firms is legal—and mostly supported by Democrats. Try buying a house and living in peace ; your appreciation goes to investors. Under Bernie, it might become a kleptocracy ; under Kamala, a kakistocracy. There are a variety of flavors of corruption. Currently, the most concerning kind is grand corruption . Grand corruption is when public institutions are co-opted by networks of ruling elites to steal public resources for their own private gain. It involves a wide variety of activities including bribery, extortion, nepotism, favoritism, cronyism, judicial fraud, accounting fraud, electoral fraud, public service fraud, embezzlement, influence peddling, and conflicts of interest. The “party of youth” —as someone once said, “If you’re still a socialist at 40, you have no brain.” Harsh? Maybe. But look at the Democratic Party: do they seem to get wiser with age? “If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is not a conservative by 40, he has no brain.” — Winston Churchill Why is fake news so persistent? It follows the same rule as bad customer service—the reputation sticks. On fake news, consider Isaiah Berlin and Friedrich Hayek , knights of classical liberalism. Maybe that’s why Trump won—elites don’t put food on the table. Liberalism and the Pursuit of Happiness The root of fascism, communism, and all totalitarian ideologies lies in the naïve belief that there is only one correct way to live and that intellectuals can determine it with the certainty of natural sciences. Liberalism, by contrast, does not prescribe a singular way of life and this is its strength. It enables individuals with diverse beliefs, goals, and ambitions to coexist. This principle is embodied in the Declaration of Independence, which proclaims the “pursuit of happiness”—a pursuit meant for individuals to discover, not for the state to dictate. This is the core belief of liberalism. With the Pope absent from climate advocacy, perhaps churches can fill the role . Whether lawyers act out of conviction or cash is debatable, but climate lawfare is on the rise. Are we heading back to gladiator justice—only with no one to fight? The public trust doctrine had little to do with environmental law until the 1970s, when Joseph Sax argued it could support lawsuits to defend public resources. Are law firms above the law ? Consider the government’s action against Perkins Coie , blocked by Judge Beryl Howell , an Obama appointee. Will we ever find answers to the big questions—like assassination attempts? President Trump’s executive order against Perkins Coie was ruled unconstitutional and retaliatory. It cannot be enforced. This ruling marks the biggest legal setback in Trump’s campaign against firms representing his political adversaries— many of which challenged the order in court . It’s all in the family. Once lawyers secure a case , the food chain never ends. Knowing the system matters—justice is second. And sometimes the lawyers themselves become the story. Abbe Lowell’s communications were ruled outside attorney-client privilege in a 2020 opinion by Judge Howell. The reason: potential evidence of crimes and involvement of non-lawyer third parties. And finally, on tariffs: if your population can’t afford the goods they produce, your export model collapses. Without a home market , tariffs eventually hit hard. Two years from now, Democrats may still hate DJT—but maybe they'll admit he saw it coming.
May 7, 2025
The betrayal of the American school system is evident when education becomes a secondary priority—supplanted by sports and social wellbeing. While some countries prioritize STEM in their education systems, the U.S. seems increasingly focused on “alternative” social issues. The value system now places lawyers, judges, and welfare programs front and center—paving the way for more lawfare, entertainment, and injustice dressed as justice. Yes, football players generate revenue , but so do scientists and engineers. Imagine if every ambulance chaser became an engineer designing fault-proof devices—the only downside? An hourly rate of $50 versus $250–$1500. Where is Congress in setting the tone? Nearly all members are lawyers. And while student loan debt exceeds $2.8 billion , we’re still debating whether to pay a third-grade volunteer assistant coach. It’s legal insanity. Next up? Pool, pickleball, darts, and cricket just to earn a buck. Maybe we should only have Division I colleges—and let sports fund all education. That, of course, would be a myth for the ACLU . Claudia Wilken is the jurist who will have the final say on the pending $2.8 billion settlement of a class-action lawsuit that is set to end the NCAA’s decades-old rules that have prohibited players from getting paid. It’s no exaggeration to say that the future of college sports rests on her decision. The deal Wilken is scrutinizing would award back pay to thousands of athletes, while allowing schools for the first time to pay their athletes directly from the billions of dollars they help generate. For an NCAA that had long sold the public on unpaid amateurs as central to the appeal of college sports, it is an earthquake. To athletes, it’s a revelation. European countries with apprenticeship systems educate roughly 60% of their college-age population. Even China implemented apprenticeships to address labor skill gaps. Meanwhile, the U.S. nurtures a college-for-everyone model, wasting millions for the profit of lenders and sports leagues that draft “free” talent. Sports are not an academic curriculum. The education and sports industries must be separated—eliminating the need to “draft” students to fill classrooms. The NFL could easily run junior leagues with the money colleges spend on coaches . Adopting apprenticeship programs in the U.S. would have clear benefits. But what happens to colleges that lose 60% of their students? And where does that leave the millions glued to TVs each March and fall? Education versus entertainment. With only 0.1% of college players turning pro, what happens to the 99.9% after graduation? Watching from the couch? In much of the world , especially in soccer, elite athletes are developed from a young age by professional clubs—not schools. Take Alan Carleton , as an example of how the system could succeed in the US.. The summer before his junior year, he became the first “homegrown” player to sign with Atlanta United FC in Major League Soccer. Atlanta United’s owner, Arthur Blank—who also owns the Atlanta Falcons—picked up Carleton from his Powder Springs, GA home in a Mercedes-Benz van to take him to a signing ceremony at The Varsity, a local Atlanta diner. Is it time for the U.S. to adopt a European-style model where pro clubs develop athletes and schools focus solely on academics? Another cultural debate making waves is the missed opportunity of not following seahorses in the sexual evolution cycle. Today, anything outside of “gender neutral” is treated as scientific radicalism. Gender ideology debates rage on, while perhaps Elon Musk has a solution he’d never use. Like it or not, we are male and female. Clothes and cosmetics don’t change biology. Feelings— no matter how intense —aren’t science. Ask Meta AI , or just be yourself—and be tolerant in both directions. But that's not their only oddity. Seahorses swim vertically, lack pelvic fins, have bony plates over their bodies, and move their eyeballs independently. Perhaps most distinctively, the males carry babies and give birth to them instead of females.
April 22, 2025
Generational divide, ideological alliance —the Democrats' dilemma. In the search for a new leader, Bernie Sanders with AOC may appear as the perfect ideological duo—but will their platform ever become mainstream? Probably not. Oligarchs exist on both sides of the political aisle—some overt, others working as lobbyists or influencers. George Clooney could be an intriguing candidate; he arguably has as much intellect as Joe Biden and could deliver a performance on par with Volodymyr Zelensky. Maybe someone will convince him. After all, Ronald Reagan became a great president. Clooney’s favorite, Wes Moore , could be the first president from Maryland—and that may be enough for Democrats. This thought is permeated by the fact that his wife, Amal Clooney, is a British-Lebanese activist who specializes in international law and human rights. She's known for representing high-profile clients like former Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko and WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange. She's also advocated for causes like the release of Al Jazeera journalists and the return of the Elgin Marbles. February 21, 2025: George didn’t think he’d have “much of a chance” with Amal when they first met. In an interview with The New York Times , Clooney said he didn’t expect Amal to be interested because of their age gap. “Then I didn’t really think I’d have much of a chance with her because I was 17 years older and she seemed to have everything she needed,” he said. He also admitted he wasn’t initially “in the market for being a dad,” but that quickly changed. “Then I met Amal, and we fell in love. I have to say that, after that, everything made sense,” he said. Then there's the infighting and wishful thinking. Take your pick. Maybe Thom Hartmann should run in 2028—he certainly offers the kind of fantasy-based commentary needed to stir debate. He’s from Grand Rapids, a town devastated by outsourcing to China. He could have starred in “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest,” but instead, Amway revitalized the area, and now, the city is back on its feet. It’s time to retire some dinosaurs from Congress. Pelosi, Schumer, McConnell—their visibility is fading. While the rallying cry is to “save democracy,” what we often get is lawfare, not leadership. From immigration to budget battles, ideology seems to drive opinion polls more than solutions. The opposition seems more focused on ensuring the administration fails, just to say “I told you so.” Take tariffs —there’s a case to be made, but it requires action. Instead, it’s easier to redefine economics to fit a narrative or litigate the issue endlessly. The 50501 movement claims to speak for the people , but it dismisses the outcome of November 2024 and the agenda voters elected. Overall, the median age of House Democrats is 57.6, while House Republicans average 57.5. In the Senate, the median age of Democrats is 66.0, slightly higher than Republicans at 64.5. According to the Congressional Research Service, 170 House members and 60 Senators are lawyers. Out of 535 total legislators, lawyers make up 43% of Congress—60% of the Senate, and 37.2% of the House. There are 81 Republican lawyers and 123 Democrat lawyers who list "lawyer" as their profession. Some may also hold law degrees but work in other roles, such as doctor, industrialist, teacher, or real estate agent or broker. The medical and real estate professions are also strongly represented in Congress.
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