Geopolitical Focus | December, 2024

European politics remain in turmoil. In Germany, the left is holding on despite regional election victories by the AFD—a political party that current politicians and media challenge as constitutionally illegitimate, denying them cooperation. A similar scenario is unfolding in Austria with the FPO following its recent election success. The arguments made against Trump in the U.S.—calling him fascist or Nazi—are echoed here in Europe.

While Austria recently concluded its elections, Germany faces new elections following a no-confidence vote. The central question remains: who is the alternative? For now, no clear contender exists to challenge Chancellor Scholz effectively. Scholz continues his path of saying and doing little, while others appear more focused on supporting Zelenskyy or addressing climate change rather than solving issues like energy costs and a struggling automotive industry. Immigration policies and involvement in unnecessary wars only deepen despair. Yet, criticism unites them all—labeling dissenters as far-right Nazis.

In France, Prime Minister Barnier lasted only a few weeks in office. The coalition of left and right parties successfully blocked the Le Pen party from entering government, prioritizing power over the people's will. However, this approach only pushes more supporters toward Le Pen. New elections in France seem inevitable, as President Macron—hailed as a savior of democracy—continues to act in an increasingly authoritarian manner.

Some argue that a form of “Trumpism” could unite Europe and bring an end to wars, though hostilities would likely persist. The U.S., which has meddled in elections before—such as in Georgia in 2024 and in Ukraine in 2014—continues its efforts to undermine Russia. Yet, dialogue is needed, not war, to ensure Russia doesn’t turn fully toward Asia. As for the Middle East, Israel must learn to live within its borders. Expanding settlements only casts settlers as invaders, undermining the hope of being seen as heroes by the international community.

The Influence of Media, accusations have surfaced that governments sponsor certain newspapers in Germany (and Europe). Many of these papers seemingly echo the doctrines of CNN and MSNBC, championing democracy while labeling dissenters as Nazis or fascists. Can this also be considered election interference?

A multinational investigation raises serious allegations against a research network linked to Spiegel and Süddeutsche Zeitung. The investigation suggests the network is covertly funded by the US and other governments, with the US government contributing nearly $12 million in 2023 alone and holding veto power over key organizational hires.

A Prime Example of media influence is the portrayal of Viktor Orbán , Hungary's Prime Minister. In diverse nations like Hungary or even the US, ideological misrepresentation often distorts leadership. Critics frequently fail to respect election outcomes, branding leaders as evil if they diverge from preferred ideologies. For certain media outlets, defying EU norms or opposing wars is enough to label someone a dictator.

South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, has long been influenced by Europe, with many industries controlled by European companies. Recent trade disputes suggest the EU is prioritizing German interests, raising questions about the fairness of EU trade policies. Once, bilateral agreements allowed countries to represent themselves in trade, fostering consensus over favoritism.

The Paris-Berlin rift is critical because negotiating trade deals is one of the EU Commission's most important roles. France's repeated vetoes to the Mercosur deal have frustrated Germany, prompting some German leaders to consider reclaiming control over their trade policies.

At least Europe is engaging in talks and trade, even amid internal rifts. In contrast, US trade policies often result in drugs, migration, and guns. What has been the Biden administration’s strategy for South America? Career politicians often focus on political objectives rather than fostering strong international relations.

Foreign crises, particularly those in Latin America, have had significant implications for US politics. Issues like the spread of mafias and refugee migrations to the southern border often overshadow more distant conflicts in shaping US electoral outcomes.

Biden has appointed more career diplomats as ambassadors than his predecessor, Donald Trump, who often nominated campaign donors. While Biden was expected to restore America’s diplomatic standing, many of his appointees remain criticized for prioritizing political agendas over effective diplomacy.

President Biden recently announced another aid package for Ukraine , underscoring his administration’s reliance on military solutions. Critics argue his policies are driven by ego and elite interests, emphasizing war over diplomacy. Current global conflicts demonstrate the failures of these approaches, turning regional disputes into global crises.

The real risk of a Trump-Putin deal lies in the potential concessions to Russia that could undermine Western alliances and allow Russia to recover and prepare for future aggression. Effective diplomacy must balance peace with realistic compromises, including recognizing Russia’s historical ties to Crimea and addressing NATO’s role as a perceived warmonger.

Blinken and NATO leaders continue to pledge military aid for Ukraine, emphasizing the importance of fortifying its position before the Biden administration’s term ends. However, the ongoing strategy seems to prioritize not losing the war rather than achieving meaningful resolutions.

The result? More casualties, escalating tensions, and little progress toward lasting peace. Is this truly a victory?