Geopolitical Focus – February, 2024

February 8, 2024

Geopolitical Focus – February, 2024:  The Elites and Democracy

The Elites and Democracy? The WEF, EU, UN, WHO, and countless others, all claiming to be democratic institutions serving the interests of the people. However, there's a common thread among them, forming a power structure that tends to control both people and territories.


The WEF 2024 boasted 2800 attendees from across the globe, including politicians, entrepreneurs, consultants, and various other representatives. The star guests were Vladimir Zelinsky and AI guru Sam Altman. But what about figures like Al Gore and John Kerry? Where are the lessons learned from the Covid era? The public remains skeptical. Let's set them aside for a moment.

The Forum’s new Global Cooperation Barometer showed that global cooperation has been resilient for much of the past decade, particularly in the areas of trade and capital, innovation and technology, and climate and natural capital, but has been pulled down by a sharp decline in cooperation on peace and security. A new  white paper offered diverse ideas on what global cooperation can look like in a fragmenting world.

Perhaps the decline in peace and security is a deliberate choice made by the participants, driven by the desire to achieve greater hegemony, or at least as Zelinsky puts it.


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced plans for a potential global summit to push for peace and called for renewed investment in the country. “Strengthen our economy, and we’ll strengthen your security,” he told participants, adding that there will be growth in Ukraine once the war is over. More than 80 national security advisers from governments and international organizations met in Davos to advance a blueprint for peace in Ukraine at the Fourth National Security Advisors Meeting, hosted by Switzerland in collaboration with the Forum.

Unfortunately, peace talks, as he suggested, are unlikely to happen. If he looks at history and the current global scenario, he might struggle to keep himself safe. The rest of the WEF mainly consists of technocratic and autocratic statements, hoping that "representatives and the media" will spin them into democratic agendas back home.


Perhaps the best overview is summarized here:

In Davos we hear so much about the enormous promises of technology – and these promises are certainly real. But technology might also disrupt human society and the very meaning of human life in numerous ways, ranging from the creation of a global useless class to the rise of data colonialism and of digital dictatorships.


Some are referring to the industry leading product producers as the magnificent five or seven: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Tesla, Nvidia and Meta Platforms.


The Ukraine War has disappeared from the International Media but occasional reports about corruption, the CIA recruiting Russian dissenters to overthrow Putin with another Maidan Coup, and how Russia is invading Sweden and Finland. So does this make funding essential? What these individuals fail to mention is that the US signed a treaty with Finland to deploy weapons, potentially instigating another conflict similar to the situation in Ukraine. This move is justified through media sensationalism, jeopardizing over 50 years of peace between these nations. Additionally, Mr. Zelinsky expresses dissatisfaction with other countries providing refuge to those who left the war for peace, only to face potential repercussions if caught at the border.

Is the triangle formed by Germany, the EU, and the US truly a lasting future relationship, or does it reveal a weakness and disorientation on the European side? Migration has been a shared challenge for all three, with open borders but a lack of concrete plans for integration or a legal foundation to control it. While liberal forces advocate for assistance, they simultaneously contribute to pushing their own people into poverty.


There is a unanimous stance that Russian frozen assets rightfully belong to Ukraine, even though they are funds belonging to Russian citizens, not the state. The primary distinction lies in the surging US economy (thanks to the war), while the EU/German economies are stuttering due to the consequences of the war, notably sanctions.


Despite a shared commitment to the green agenda, all three entities struggle with stagnant electric vehicle sales, ongoing issues with solar and wind energy, and an economic reliance on printed money. Additionally, they face challenges in securing raw material resources and long-term access to them.

However, the driving force behind the unity is NATO, using the Ukraine War, which was instigated by the US, to force a military alliance to tie the EU to the US, divide and weaken Russia, to either split it up or destroy it politically. There is no political alignment in Europe; the so-called Fascists by the Power Elite (note the AFD is what the Trumpers are in the US) are under attack by the current regimes in EU countries and the US, but especially Germany. All these democratic supporters (for them, it is a one-party state) use all legal means and the press to force opinions and labels on the people. But no one wants peace with Russia; leave NATO where it belongs. Tell Zelinsky that Russia is a neighbor and at the same time integrate Russia into an extended Europe. Will there be local tribe conflicts? Yes, but not a war of destruction and death if you understand history. This war was all but avoidable, with one big beneficiary, the US; the rest of the world lost. And Zelinsky is begging for crumbs; he still believes he can win, and no one reasons with him. Note, the world is not a win-lose game but a win-win, perhaps.


The U.S. recorded a new record in arms exports last year. With an increase of 16 percent, exports reached a total value of 238 billion dollars, as announced by the State Department on Monday. The sale of weapons is considered "an important foreign policy tool of the United States."


Here is an Interview with a person who has experienced both sides of political systems and is respected in the West.

Ai Weiwei, the renowned Chinese artist, has compared the cancellation of his exhibition at the Lisson Gallery in London to the repressive measures taken during Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution in China. In an interview  with Sky News on Sunday, the 66-year-old expressed his concern about what he perceives as political censorship in the West. "I grew up with this fierce political censorship," says Ai Weiwei. "I'm now realizing that people in the West are doing exactly the same thing today."

Chinese influence in Europe, but especially Hungary is growing, with leading the Green Revolution with advanced technologies, and the process to flood the European Market with E Cars, built in Hungary. Meanwhile the US and the EU spend money on Ukraine and NATO, consider if Putin were to intervene in Hungary, potentially sparking a war with China. The idea of invading Sweden or Finland seems impractical, given the abundance of snow, ice, and forests, all readily available in Russia. The conflict in Ukraine is perceived as a civil war, and perhaps it's best to let them find their own solutions. The US already has a significant military presence in the Middle East, close to Russia; there's no need to deploy forces to Ukraine for Zelensky's aspirations.

Hungary, a small, landlocked country of 9.6 million people, has emerged as an increasingly important production hub in Europe for automotive suppliers, particularly from China.

Chinese firms, such as battery giant CATL and carmaker Nio (NIO), have invested heavily in manufacturing in the country in recent years, alongside German competitors Mercedes, BMW and Audi. BYD already had a presence there, opening an electric bus facility in the city of Komárom in 2017.

With its new plant in Szeged, the company will gain free trade access for its passenger vehicles as well. And not just to Hungary — a longtime economic partner of China — but 26 other members of the European Union, according to Matthias Schmidt, a European autos analyst who leads the firm Schmidt Automotive Research.

It will also be able to reap “all the benefits that Western European countries provide at a fraction of the cost,” he told CNN, citing lower labor and energy costs in Hungary than those in other regional automotive hubs such as France or Germany.


While the site has likely been planned for years, experts say it is especially timely, because it will allow BYD to dodge European tariffs of 10% on cars imported from the world’s second largest economy, along with any further duties imposed as a result of an ongoing EU investigation into China’s state support for EV makers.

Regarding the Build Back Better and other expenditures by the US government, it may take another 15 years to see the fruition of those well-paying jobs from US manufacturers. Additionally, the US is issuing threats of war to China over Taiwan.

Trina, like other Chinese solar giants here, is working to show it has good intentions. All of the U.S. unit’s 80-odd employees are U.S. citizens, Zhu says. The company plans to reinvest much of the money it makes into the U.S. market rather than send it back to China. Trina is trying to bring its suppliers to the U.S., and Zhu says he is “pretty sure” the company will decide to build a factory that makes solar cells—the building blocks of panels—here, too.


The U.S. market needs Chinese solar manufacturers for their technological know-how, ability to bring suppliers from China, capital and appetite for investment, Zhu says.


Zhu knows there is pushback from U.S. politicians on Chinese manufacturers. But he says “we’re not politicians. We just do the business.”


Israel's war with Hamas, retaliatory strikes in sovereign states, two-state solutions, and sanctions on settlers in Gaza have led to a dispute on how to handle the conflict, resulting in more destruction and death, aiming to eradicate Hamas and causing collateral damage to about 30,000 civilians. Legitimized under the rules of engagement, the issue arises from the forced relocation of Palestinians, which is not Israel's business; it should instead control its settlers.

So, we have a US government seen as friendly to Israel, accumulating frequent flier miles but largely ineffective in diplomacy. The prioritization of domestic issues, including concerns about fascism, raises questions. The media's focus on reporting military successes lacks examination of why the US maintains military bases in Iraq, in contrast to Russian or Chinese approaches. The conflict doesn't seem to offer solutions, potentially fueling tensions without deterrence.


The US may benefit economically from the war, aligning with a historical pattern where wars are advantageous, especially when others do the fighting—part of what some term "Bidenomics." Meanwhile, philosophical perspectives vary, with some viewing it as a life-or-death task for humanity, while others criticize a situation where elites enjoy their cake while the deplorables starve.

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As the tariff negotiations with China are currently underway in Switzerland, it appears the US and UK have agreed to a deal that seems to be an icebreaker in the ongoing saga of tariffs. However, in the end, there will be changes to the world order and a shift in focus toward more discussions about saving the planet rather than war. As of this writing, a 90-day pause with China was agreed , lowering tariffs, while China will likely have to consider some of the US demands. Here is a lesson in journalistic economies ? Friend shoring demonstrates that there are no friends or foes in politics , only interests. Even when the world’s resources were not material but simply dirt—more or less fertile—even in agricultural societies, wars and contests were common, whether for territory, ideology, or personal gain. So when people promote friend shoring, it’s more complicated these days. Just look at rare earths—it's not just dirt, is it? Friend shoring for military technology is another example; read about it for yourself. Still, there is ongoing dialogue but no long-term resolution. After Trump’s plan to control Gaza, Israel appears set to take charge instead, once again negotiating for the release of hostages and the evacuation of civilians , while the world looks on as bystanders . If trade can solve the problem , then make a deal. Here’s some food for thought —liberals may be rebellious about it, but the trend all over Europe is clear: MAGA is going global, especially with an economy in tatters and failing negotiations with Ukraine. There are more sanctions, but what can they sanction that the rest of the world cannot counter? The EU is simply a bureaucratic ideology serving its own interests. The EU wants more liberal students —which is fine, as long as we keep the STEM talent. They need more protesters , as long as the UK remains the leading provider of education ? European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Monday slammed U.S. President Donald Trump's campaign against American higher education as she unveiled a half-billion-euro plan to attract foreign researchers.

Victory, Aftermath, and the Endless Game: Reflections from WWII to Ukraine

May 16, 2025
May 8, a day in history, marks the end of WWII in Europe with the surrender of Germany , but was it really an ending? As with many wars, especially the ongoing Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, and the renewed animosities between India and Pakistan, one might wonder: have enough people died in wars? Perhaps some wars are justified, but often only after provocation. If you consider the basics of relationship building, communication is a key concept, but there is a difference between communication and simply talking. Perhaps we need more communicators and unified voices in government, whether rooted in realism or liberalism . Are these better choices, or in the end, are NGOs and individual voices the problem after all? We hope that reason will prevail—the only lasting fundamental principle—but is it really, or is it just another cause or excuse? Reason, the cause of an event or situation , or something that provides an excuse or explanation : War forever, according to this lawyer, yes . The UN Security Council is another voice that only speaks after the war, sometimes fueling the fire. Consider the Oxford Guide to Treaties —are these more sources of conflict than resolution? And historians—well, some of them are just presenting a version of their own vision of the world. How was Germany rebuilt after WWII ? Was it help on one side, and taking what you can on the other? The USSR suffered greatly and had to rebuild on its own, but why was the offer of the Marshall Plan rejected—was it due to mistrust, as we see today? Perhaps the reset button requires talks among all, but please, let the haters and ideologues out of the room—only communicators and stakeholders should be present, haters out, which probably means no Selinsky. Beginning immediately after the German surrender and continuing for the next two years, the United States pursued a vigorous program to harvest all technological and scientific know-how, as well as all patents in Germany. John Gimbel comes to the conclusion in his book, Science Technology and Reparations: Exploitation and Plunder in Post-war Germany, that the "intellectual reparations" taken by the U.S. and the UK amounted to close to $10 billion, equivalent to around $150 billion in 2024, [3] [4] concurrent to Operation Paperclip . The plea for a two-party political system (translation needed) stands in contrast to the idea of a global one-party or multi-party system as seen in European countries. Attempts at a global one-party system were made by the Romans and some other early cultures , but none proved sustainable by force or government—though that was before the advent of modern communications. Would things be different today? There are still forces hoping that may be realized, for global peace or power, as reflected in Elon Musk’s warnings about a single world government, Einstein’s global perspective , and people attempting to establish it, such as government by AI and supercomputer . Compare that to today’s European coalition building —for example, in Germany, Black/Blue coalitions seem politically unfeasible. In multi-party systems, the need to form coalitions to gain power may end in stalemates and concessions to the detriment of the people. Here is an overview of global systems and drivers of globalization . The ongoing cat-and-mouse game between advocates for peace and war continues as representatives try to negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict. Does it matter that Europe seems unified in the effort to defeat Russia with sanctions and arms, while the US seems to favor a negotiated peace? You can argue endlessly that Putin is the aggressor and invaded, but he will counter that with claims about NATO expansion and broken treaties by the West . Is Germany evolving into the powerhouse of Europe, as it should be? After the election and the ousting of Chancellor Scholz, Friedrich Merz has somehow managed to establish himself as the new leader and has immediately begun to exert influence over Europe—at least, that’s what the German “Democrats” are hoping for. So, when Trump appoints loyalists, it's called a dictatorship, but when Germany does it, it's considered democratic? Also worth noting: another Carnegie piece—and apparently every member of the German Cabinet favors war? Expect Germany's defense Minister to keep Kaja Kallas as informant, hating in politics is never a good start. Imagine, 5 years to build up the military and then eliminate the hate, for good, using the Ukraine invasion as a reason. Merz has deliberately centralized foreign and security policy coordination in the chancellery. To start, he has done away with the long-standing tradition of giving the Foreign Office to the main coalition partner, a practice that baked in foreign-policy dysfunction by setting up a separate power base held by a different political party. Now, for the first time since 1966, the chancellor and foreign minister will be from the same party—in this case, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). New Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul is a party loyalist who will ensure alignment rather than competition with the chancellor. Within the chancellery—where all important foreign-policy decisions are made—Merz has appointed close confidants to key posts: Jacob Schrot, a trusted trans-Atlanticist, as head of the newly created German National Security Council; veteran diplomat Günter Sautter as foreign-policy lead; and Michael Clauss to handle European Union affairs, which Merz wants to make a core strategic portfolio and to which Clauss brings credibility and experience, including significant work on China.

US Political News Round Up: Lawyers, Investors, and the New Age of Power and Policy

May 9, 2025
Remember the Biden-era stock market jubilations ? It was all about the Magnificent Seven —overhyped and overvalued. The tariff talk came at just the right time to disguise an overdue market correction. The administration framed it as “uncertainty over tariffs.” But no worries, like COVID, it will be “cured” by the same people who created it . Political noise on both sides continues to serve as distraction— like whistling at a referee during a soccer match. Are lawyers and investors the most destructive forces in America? On one side, there are legal maneuvers that deter people from investing. On the other, roll-up acquisitions concentrate wealth that was once shared broadly. Bernie Sanders is on his “Oligarchy Tour,” pointing fingers at Elon Musk—but what about private equity groups (PEGs) ? Are they not a form of oligarchy? And PEGs owning law firms is legal—and mostly supported by Democrats. Try buying a house and living in peace ; your appreciation goes to investors. Under Bernie, it might become a kleptocracy ; under Kamala, a kakistocracy. There are a variety of flavors of corruption. Currently, the most concerning kind is grand corruption . Grand corruption is when public institutions are co-opted by networks of ruling elites to steal public resources for their own private gain. It involves a wide variety of activities including bribery, extortion, nepotism, favoritism, cronyism, judicial fraud, accounting fraud, electoral fraud, public service fraud, embezzlement, influence peddling, and conflicts of interest. The “party of youth” —as someone once said, “If you’re still a socialist at 40, you have no brain.” Harsh? Maybe. But look at the Democratic Party: do they seem to get wiser with age? “If a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is not a conservative by 40, he has no brain.” — Winston Churchill Why is fake news so persistent? It follows the same rule as bad customer service—the reputation sticks. On fake news, consider Isaiah Berlin and Friedrich Hayek , knights of classical liberalism. Maybe that’s why Trump won—elites don’t put food on the table. Liberalism and the Pursuit of Happiness The root of fascism, communism, and all totalitarian ideologies lies in the naïve belief that there is only one correct way to live and that intellectuals can determine it with the certainty of natural sciences. Liberalism, by contrast, does not prescribe a singular way of life and this is its strength. It enables individuals with diverse beliefs, goals, and ambitions to coexist. This principle is embodied in the Declaration of Independence, which proclaims the “pursuit of happiness”—a pursuit meant for individuals to discover, not for the state to dictate. This is the core belief of liberalism. With the Pope absent from climate advocacy, perhaps churches can fill the role . Whether lawyers act out of conviction or cash is debatable, but climate lawfare is on the rise. Are we heading back to gladiator justice—only with no one to fight? The public trust doctrine had little to do with environmental law until the 1970s, when Joseph Sax argued it could support lawsuits to defend public resources. Are law firms above the law ? Consider the government’s action against Perkins Coie , blocked by Judge Beryl Howell , an Obama appointee. Will we ever find answers to the big questions—like assassination attempts? President Trump’s executive order against Perkins Coie was ruled unconstitutional and retaliatory. It cannot be enforced. This ruling marks the biggest legal setback in Trump’s campaign against firms representing his political adversaries— many of which challenged the order in court . It’s all in the family. Once lawyers secure a case , the food chain never ends. Knowing the system matters—justice is second. And sometimes the lawyers themselves become the story. Abbe Lowell’s communications were ruled outside attorney-client privilege in a 2020 opinion by Judge Howell. The reason: potential evidence of crimes and involvement of non-lawyer third parties. And finally, on tariffs: if your population can’t afford the goods they produce, your export model collapses. Without a home market , tariffs eventually hit hard. Two years from now, Democrats may still hate DJT—but maybe they'll admit he saw it coming.

U.S. News – May 2025: Could American Education & Athletics benefit from the Integration of Apprenticeships and Academys?

May 7, 2025
The betrayal of the American school system is evident when education becomes a secondary priority—supplanted by sports and social wellbeing. While some countries prioritize STEM in their education systems, the U.S. seems increasingly focused on “alternative” social issues. The value system now places lawyers, judges, and welfare programs front and center—paving the way for more lawfare, entertainment, and injustice dressed as justice. Yes, football players generate revenue , but so do scientists and engineers. Imagine if every ambulance chaser became an engineer designing fault-proof devices—the only downside? An hourly rate of $50 versus $250–$1500. Where is Congress in setting the tone? Nearly all members are lawyers. And while student loan debt exceeds $2.8 billion , we’re still debating whether to pay a third-grade volunteer assistant coach. It’s legal insanity. Next up? Pool, pickleball, darts, and cricket just to earn a buck. Maybe we should only have Division I colleges—and let sports fund all education. That, of course, would be a myth for the ACLU . Claudia Wilken is the jurist who will have the final say on the pending $2.8 billion settlement of a class-action lawsuit that is set to end the NCAA’s decades-old rules that have prohibited players from getting paid. It’s no exaggeration to say that the future of college sports rests on her decision. The deal Wilken is scrutinizing would award back pay to thousands of athletes, while allowing schools for the first time to pay their athletes directly from the billions of dollars they help generate. For an NCAA that had long sold the public on unpaid amateurs as central to the appeal of college sports, it is an earthquake. To athletes, it’s a revelation. European countries with apprenticeship systems educate roughly 60% of their college-age population. Even China implemented apprenticeships to address labor skill gaps. Meanwhile, the U.S. nurtures a college-for-everyone model, wasting millions for the profit of lenders and sports leagues that draft “free” talent. Sports are not an academic curriculum. The education and sports industries must be separated—eliminating the need to “draft” students to fill classrooms. The NFL could easily run junior leagues with the money colleges spend on coaches . Adopting apprenticeship programs in the U.S. would have clear benefits. But what happens to colleges that lose 60% of their students? And where does that leave the millions glued to TVs each March and fall? Education versus entertainment. With only 0.1% of college players turning pro, what happens to the 99.9% after graduation? Watching from the couch? In much of the world , especially in soccer, elite athletes are developed from a young age by professional clubs—not schools. Take Alan Carleton , as an example of how the system could succeed in the US.. The summer before his junior year, he became the first “homegrown” player to sign with Atlanta United FC in Major League Soccer. Atlanta United’s owner, Arthur Blank—who also owns the Atlanta Falcons—picked up Carleton from his Powder Springs, GA home in a Mercedes-Benz van to take him to a signing ceremony at The Varsity, a local Atlanta diner. Is it time for the U.S. to adopt a European-style model where pro clubs develop athletes and schools focus solely on academics? Another cultural debate making waves is the missed opportunity of not following seahorses in the sexual evolution cycle. Today, anything outside of “gender neutral” is treated as scientific radicalism. Gender ideology debates rage on, while perhaps Elon Musk has a solution he’d never use. Like it or not, we are male and female. Clothes and cosmetics don’t change biology. Feelings— no matter how intense —aren’t science. Ask Meta AI , or just be yourself—and be tolerant in both directions. But that's not their only oddity. Seahorses swim vertically, lack pelvic fins, have bony plates over their bodies, and move their eyeballs independently. Perhaps most distinctively, the males carry babies and give birth to them instead of females.

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Generational divide, ideological alliance —the Democrats' dilemma. In the search for a new leader, Bernie Sanders with AOC may appear as the perfect ideological duo—but will their platform ever become mainstream? Probably not. Oligarchs exist on both sides of the political aisle—some overt, others working as lobbyists or influencers. George Clooney could be an intriguing candidate; he arguably has as much intellect as Joe Biden and could deliver a performance on par with Volodymyr Zelensky. Maybe someone will convince him. After all, Ronald Reagan became a great president. Clooney’s favorite, Wes Moore , could be the first president from Maryland—and that may be enough for Democrats. This thought is permeated by the fact that his wife, Amal Clooney, is a British-Lebanese activist who specializes in international law and human rights. She's known for representing high-profile clients like former Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko and WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange. She's also advocated for causes like the release of Al Jazeera journalists and the return of the Elgin Marbles. February 21, 2025: George didn’t think he’d have “much of a chance” with Amal when they first met. In an interview with The New York Times , Clooney said he didn’t expect Amal to be interested because of their age gap. “Then I didn’t really think I’d have much of a chance with her because I was 17 years older and she seemed to have everything she needed,” he said. He also admitted he wasn’t initially “in the market for being a dad,” but that quickly changed. “Then I met Amal, and we fell in love. I have to say that, after that, everything made sense,” he said. Then there's the infighting and wishful thinking. Take your pick. Maybe Thom Hartmann should run in 2028—he certainly offers the kind of fantasy-based commentary needed to stir debate. He’s from Grand Rapids, a town devastated by outsourcing to China. He could have starred in “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest,” but instead, Amway revitalized the area, and now, the city is back on its feet. It’s time to retire some dinosaurs from Congress. Pelosi, Schumer, McConnell—their visibility is fading. While the rallying cry is to “save democracy,” what we often get is lawfare, not leadership. From immigration to budget battles, ideology seems to drive opinion polls more than solutions. The opposition seems more focused on ensuring the administration fails, just to say “I told you so.” Take tariffs —there’s a case to be made, but it requires action. Instead, it’s easier to redefine economics to fit a narrative or litigate the issue endlessly. The 50501 movement claims to speak for the people , but it dismisses the outcome of November 2024 and the agenda voters elected. Overall, the median age of House Democrats is 57.6, while House Republicans average 57.5. In the Senate, the median age of Democrats is 66.0, slightly higher than Republicans at 64.5. According to the Congressional Research Service, 170 House members and 60 Senators are lawyers. Out of 535 total legislators, lawyers make up 43% of Congress—60% of the Senate, and 37.2% of the House. There are 81 Republican lawyers and 123 Democrat lawyers who list "lawyer" as their profession. Some may also hold law degrees but work in other roles, such as doctor, industrialist, teacher, or real estate agent or broker. The medical and real estate professions are also strongly represented in Congress.
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