Geopolitical Focus – September 2023

Geopolitical Focus – September 2023

While the US remains deeply involved in the conflict in Ukraine and is dedicated to providing all necessary assistance, as evidenced by Secretary Blinken's recent visit with another financial contribution, the international community may begin to question the high toll of lives sacrificed in the name of democracy. Ukraine may face a depletion of its population sooner rather than later, and potential volunteers may become increasingly reluctant to join the cause. Here are a couple of translations from European sources, including Ukrainian and Russian perspectives.

Simultaneously, there are voices raising concerns about the democratic status of Ukraine, which currently seems more autocratic with a President fully committed to the "War" effort. While the Western world insists that he was democratically elected, some individuals with a deeper understanding of the underlying power dynamics may argue that the election had a predetermined outcome. For instance, President Biden asserts the democratic nature of the process, but some may contend that opinions can be influenced when certain information is presented with a degree of manipulation.

You can read about the details of the latest US package here. After Cluster Bombs, The Biden administration will for the first time send controversial armor-piercing munitions containing depleted uranium to Ukraine, according to a document seen by Reuters and separately confirmed by two U.S. officials.

And here is the document about Selinski and Democracy. Does this also include the press and Selinski’s propaganda machine? 

In addition, the government is very present – if not over-present – and usually reports positively on its own work. Of course, the people in Ukraine do not miss the fact that an unrealistic picture of the situation in the country is often painted. Many are aware: "It's our propaganda, but it's still propaganda."

The presidential organization around Zelensky has thus become a kind of shadow government. He won in 2019 in a free and fair election and is accordingly democratically legitimized. This does not apply to his advisers, who have concentrated a great deal of power on themselves since the beginning of the war. The parliament and even the government with the prime minister, on the other hand, have lost influence.

Considering all the previous information and the recent change in the defense minister, which occurred amidst allegations of corruption, one could interpret this as a group within the government that might be using corruption to consolidate power within government circles. They may be doing so to further the interests of the US President in Ukraine and safeguard Western investments, reminiscent of how Guatemala defended the interests of the United Fruit Company in the past.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky dismisses Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov. Rustem Umerov, head of the state wealth fund, is to follow him.

While Western media often present a positive view of the situation in Ukraine, there are alternative sources that paint a different, more grim picture. According to these sources, approximately 400,000 Ukrainians have been either killed or wounded, and a substantial number have fled the country. Others are in hiding due to the general mobilization ordered by President Zelensky. Additionally, reports suggest that those on the front lines of the conflict are expressing concerns about inadequate NATO training and demoralization among the soldiers. This conflicting information can make it challenging to determine which narrative to believe.

Conscripted Ukrainians are fleeing. The government has so far stopped 20,000 of them. But hundreds of thousands have long been abroad.

After Russia's invasion, Ukraine had declared a general mobilization. Since then, men of conscription age between the ages of 18 and 60 have not been allowed to leave the country.

However, many of them still try. For the first time, the Ukrainian border guard has published figures on this.

Accordingly, around 20,000 men were prevented from escaping. Most of them wanted to cross the border secretly, another part was on the road with fake exit permits.

But far more have made it. According to the EU statistical office Eurostat, more than 650,000 men of conscription age are registered in the 27 states of the European Union as well as in Switzerland and the Principality of Liechtenstein.

The government in Kiev is currently considering demanding that the EU extradite these illegal migrants. Retirements for health reasons are to be re-examined to see whether they have been justified.

In addition, the bribery market is flourishing in order to avoid being drafted into the army. In some cases, more than 13,000 euros are said to have been paid for exemption from military service.

And here some other staggering numbers; 

The Centre for Economic Strategy, a Ukrainian non-governmental organization, has made calculations based on various sources and surveys.

According to the report, up to 6.7 million Ukrainians were abroad at the end of June due to the war. That's up to half a million more than estimates at the end of 2022. The reason for the increase lies in Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure and on individual cities.

And here some voices from the front; Ukrainian soldiers criticize the effectiveness and realism of the NATO training they received for fighting on the front line in Kharkiv during three weeks in Germany. This is reported by the online portal The Kyiv Independent.

And for your conclusion, here an article that sums up the current status and an idea of the cost, with the EU promising Money it does not have?  Ukraine aid: Europe pledges Kyiv a whopping €156 billion, while US solidarity with Zelensky costs less than €70 billion

While the remaining Western leaders gather at the G20 summit, it's notable that Russia and China's Presidents have chosen not to participate. Russia's absence is likely due to the ongoing Ukraine situation, whereas China's President might have declined because President Biden sought a one-on-one meeting, which may not align with China's priorities.

The G20 conference itself may revolve around these dynamics, as not all 20 member states share the same views on using military power to resolve conflicts or have different historical perspectives on the causes and effects of international developments. Finding a solution to conflicts is a pressing demand, not merely a necessity, considering the global context.

This situation could lead to discussions about BRICS, which the US may want to approach cautiously, as its development could potentially pose more challenges than a Europe-Russia economic alliance due to the shift in global economic power dynamics.

China and Russia see the G-20, the association of the world's 20 largest industrialized countries, as an obsolete model and will therefore reduce their participation in this organization. This is the reason why neither Chinese leader Xi Jinping nor Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin will travel to the upcoming G-20 summit in the Indian capital New Delhi. The international arrest warrant against Putin has no effect in India.

This is the conclusion reached by British analyst Alexander Mercouris in a conversation on the vlog "The Duran".

A second reason for Xi's absence: The Chinese is not interested in a personal meeting with US President Joe Biden. Washington, however, had worked hard behind the scenes to ensure that such a meeting could take place in Delhi. Xi, however, deeply distrusts Biden and told him this personally during a phone call: Biden promises something, but his administration does the opposite.

As the tragic conflict in Ukraine continues, the world also grapples with other noteworthy issues:

• In the realm of sports, an incident involving the suspension of an official over an unwelcome celebratory kiss and the dismissal of a successful coach in Spain raise questions about decision-making and perceptions. These incidents prompt discussions about gender dynamics in sports, with some advocating for inclusivity, while others express concerns about biological differences.
  
  
• Shifting our focus to politics, we witness the impact of the Biden administration's policies, often referred to as "Bidenomics" and "Bidenbiology." Despite diplomatic challenges and concerns about rhetoric, the United States maintains formidable military capabilities that serve as a counterbalance.
  
  
• Reflecting on international relations, there was once an opportunity for a vote in Ukraine regarding regional affiliations, with the possibility that the contested region might have chosen to join Russia by a significant margin. However, this proposal was rejected by certain Democratic leaders who argued that such an election could be manipulated. It remains a question whether President Zelensky and President Biden possess insights that elude the general public.
  
  
• The reluctance to pursue such a vote may be influenced by the continued presence of political figures associated with the Bush/Cheney wing of the party.

Bloody promotion: U.S. warmonger Victoria Nuland becomes Deputy Secretary of State

Those who had hoped that the US would end the Ukraine carnage were disappointed: Victoria Nuland, ruthless warmonger, was promoted. Now she has more opportunities to advance her hard-hitting agenda.

Nuland is said to be deputy secretary of state for the time being. For a permanent vocation, obstacles still have to be cleared out of the way.

The hawks rejoice. After all, Nuland played a major role in the outbreak of war in the first place. It orchestrated the overthrow of Ukrainian President Yanukovych, it installed Arseniy "Yaz" Yatsenyuk as a loyal prime minister, it gave the Europeans the middle finger: "Fuck the EU."

She irritated Russia to the point of blood.

She was always up for wars: for President George W. Bush, the diplomat drummed for the Iraq war, under Barack Obama for the invasion of Afghanistan.

Now that it's finally up against Russia, her favorite enemy, Nuland isn't going to stop anytime soon. Her career move will cost many people their lives.